Seeking Alpha

Merry Christmas!

I know it's tacky to give cash but, as we closed our original, virtual $25,000 Portfolio early on October 20th and we were miles ahead of our $100,000 goal, we decided to do this bonus portfolio starting with a fresh virtual $15,000 set aside out of our $130,000 - risking 1/2 of the excess profits in an attempt to make 60% more ($10,000) in two months.

We started that Monday, the 24th of October with our GNW spread (which I also discussed on TV that day) and that Friday we put up the official post where, I will remind you, our stated goal was to make a little bonus money for the holidays AND to share some of that money with a worthy cause. I want to thank everyone who chose to donate to the NYC Food Bank, we got some really spectacular donations from some of you and I really appreciate it and I hope you have all gotten into the holiday spirit and helped to support those in need this season - it's much appreciated and I thank you.

Just as importantly, I very much hope you were able to learn something following this portfolio. We never put much capital at risk, we took quick profits off the table and we worked our way out of most of our losses through rolling and adjusting - letting the trading range do most of the hard work. Most importantly, we had BALANCE - we selected trades in both directions - enjoying the wild ride from the up and down markets.

That strategy, in fact, worked very well!

As of Friday and since our last update on the 16th, when we had $41,465 of realized gains, we closed the following positions:

  • 5 SCO Dec $37 puts sold for net $1.90, expired worthless – up $1,900
  • 5 FAS Dec $40 puts sold for $2.40, expired worthless – up $1,200
  • 10 TNA Dec $41 calls at net $1.50, out at $1.50 - even
  • 10 FAS Dec $61 calls sold at net $0 (spread), expired worthless - even
  • 10 TLT 12/23 $121 calls sold for net .74 ($740), expired worthless – up $740
  • 10 GNW Dec $6 puts sold for .85, expired worthless - up $850
  • 10 QQQ 12/16 $56 puts at .57, out at $1.05 - up $480
  • 10 TNA Dec $40/41 bull call spreads at .40 ($400), out a .95 – up $550
  • 20 QQQ 12/16 $55 puts at .22, out at .22 - even
  • 5 JPM Dec $32 puts sold for .90, out at .15 – up $375
  • 10 TLT 12/23 $123 puts at net $2.87, out at $3.60 - up $730
  • 10 FAS Jan $67 calls at net $2, out at $2.80 - up $800
  • 10 FAS Jan 72 call sold at net $0, out at $1 – down $1,000
  • 10 GNW Jan $5/6 bull call spreads at net .49, out at .70 - up $210
  • 10 FCX Feb $33 puts sold for $1.25, out at $1.25 - even

Up a very jolly $6,835 in a week puts us miles over goal at $48,300, up a whopping 222% in 60 days! That's certainly enough to keep us ahead of inflation and triple our goal so Merry Christmas too all and I called it a good night (officially) for this portfolio on Wednesday but we're all gamblers at heart so we did take a few bearish fliers into next week - just for fun:

Our remaining open positions are:
  • 20 DIA 12/31 $120 puts at net .85 ($1,700),
  • 20 USO 12/30 $38 puts at .48 ($960),
  • 5 VXX Jan $32/35 bull call spreads at $1.30 ($1,300)
  • 5 VXX 12/30 $34 puts sold at $1.12 (-$1,120)

Our goal is to not blow net $45,000 and we're only risking $2,840 so, barring some huge bullish run that has us owning VXX short at $34 when it's much lower - our $45,000 should be safe and maybe we get lucky and pull $50K - won't that be fun?

We'll be starting a new virtual $25,000 Portfolio after the holidays and we'll certainly follow the same strategy under the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" rule. Congratulations to all who played and please don’t forget, if following this bonus portfolio has been good to you this holiday season – please take a moment to do something good for someone else:

Reach more New Yorkers with a matching gift!

I know you may think $35 is not much money (we pay more in trading fees on single transactions) but, for some people - just having a hot meal makes for a Christmas Dinner. I won't bore you with anecdotes from the Food Bank nor will I deluge you with statistics but the valet parkers at my mall charge $10 so you don't have to walk 100 yards from the parking lot and that same $10 buys a turkey at your local soup kitchen with which they can help feed a dozen people who are down on their luck a lovely meal.

The charity that is a trifle to us can be precious to others. - Homer

From all of us at PSW - thanks for another wonderful year!

Best wishes to you and yours this holiday season,

- Phil

Disclosure: I am short DIA, USO.

Additional disclosure: Positions as indicated but subject to change

From Philip Davis:

USO, QQQ- Phil, thanks for these plays. Out of USO for about 65% gain today and just keeping 1/4 QQQ.

- Ksone88, July 14, 2011  


Phil, You were on the $ today with your calls almost exactly on the turns – Krap kuhn krup (Thai for thank you very much).

- Jomptien, July 14, 2011  


Thanks for the USO directions today. Made it 3 times (up/down/up) for a very nice win.

- Doro165, August 2, 2011  


Phil, I don’t know how I can thank you enough for your guidance this past week. I’m up significantly in my portfolio and I’ve never been so relaxed watching the market panic. Thanks once again for being here for us.

- thechaser, August 2, 2011  


Oil – thanks Phil, got in late at 0.53 on the 38p today, set a sell for 0.75 and took the dog for a walk – 70% gain and more than enough $$ to buy dog food. TZA Aug 35/40 BCS – closed out for a 100% gain in under a month – thanks again for introducing me to these trades.

- CanuckBob, August 2, 2011  


GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday. Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15% on the options. And lots of them. Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well.

- lflantheman, August 2, 2011  


Your board has been fantastic helping the less experienced (includes me) navigate through all the turmoil. The contributions from your members has been well rounded, objective, and extremely helpful. Sans the politics you have built a fantastic community and that is a tribute to you. I thank you and all fellow members for there contributions over the past few days. Fantastic group!

- dclark41, August 3, 2011  


Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!

- Jromeha, August 5, 2011  


On Optrader’s section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers’. I’ve got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it’s hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I’ve learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

- Iflantheman, August 8, 2011  


Thank God for Phil. A few months ago (April) I didn´t even know what hedging was, and someone recommended I should check out some of Phil´s plays, especially on the retirement portfolio. When I first started to read it, none of it made a blind bit of sense to me, but I stuck with it and gradually began to work through some of the trades to see how it worked. Now I am putting on 5:1 SPY backspreads combined with bear put spreads, entering and leaving positions after consulting the VIX, and engaging in other esoteric maneuvers that are keeping my portfolio above water.

- jmm1951, August 18, 2011  


I took $2 (up 133%) and ran on those USO puts, quite a bit more than the 20 you played in the $25KP. Thank you once again for turning a bad market week into a great personal week. You will be happy to know I am back to cashy and cautious with a few of your favorite longs into the weekend. Thanks to Phil, JRW and all the members who share their knowledge here.

- Dennis, August 18, 2011  


Phil, I just wanted to say thanks for being there. The world needs more of you. Your site continues to positively change my life daily.

- Chasw, October 18, 2011  


GIVE THANKS/PHIL Have not done my 10,000 hours, but a couple of years at PSW, and moved from fishing with a single line to owner of a commercial trawler (metaphorically speaking). Now I fish with many lines. It is amazing when you go over the same information time and time again, eventually it clicks. Like planting trees; being the house, 20% sale items, selling into the excitement. and patience. I just sold an AAPL Jan 12 340/390 BCS financed by the sales of Jan 12 275 Put. The trade was put on one year ago for a net credit and exited five minutes ago for a 49 dollar per contract profit. No point in waiting till opex to see what happens, and I will just sell 10 of those VLO puts to make myself net the round 50. I no longer worry about opex coming as I have adjusted well in time for most positions that go against me. I still make some howlers (RIMM, TBT, TRGT) but I play the percentages and my winners outdistance my losers by many miles. I would never be in this position if it were not for Phil. He is a treasure, pure and simple. The goose that lays the golden egg if we care to listen and practice. Phil, a mighty big thank you.

- Winston, January 5, 2012  


It is amazing how much confidence you engender, Phil………..I knew the 1% a day trades and repeated often were possible as I had done in stretches, and I knew kill zone trades were also possible and 5% to 10% returns per month were very possible with practice, experience and smart risk management all without having to take a lot of risk, but I guess I was talking to the disbelievers and since I have dropped them into my 'why bother to try to explain it' file and come over to the dark side at PSW I feel soooo much more content not only with the returns, but with the company and a comments and the obvious opportunity to learn and learn and learn some more. It all helps the mental and emotional discipline of the trading too. So thanks again.

- Roro, January 11, 2012  


Way to go Phil! Have I said how much I appreciate your site lately! Your ability to teach and your willingless to give others a forum to demonstrate their own skill sets makes your site remarkable. I got great help from you, jmm1951, and Iflantheman (special thanks!) today. Hell, if I have many more days like this I may even be able to sign up for a full year rather than doing it just quarterly. Tomorrow is another day but, fabulous job today!

- dclark41, January 25, 2012  


Phil- I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.

- Acd54, January 25, 2012  


Maya, After years of being pretty good at picking stocks I still managed to lose almost as much as I made.All the reading Phil asked us to do as a new member (And everything else I can get my hands on lately) has revealed my Achilles Heal.Good stock picks do not necessarily make money. My problem was swinging for the fences. Since becoming a member Jan 1 this year and getting into to scaling into small trades I am amazed at the steady profit growth I have experienced already while not worrying about getting killed. And having fun doing it.. Phil, Thanks for the education, the help you give and the chance to learn more and get better. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around.

- Ricpar, February 2, 2012  


You are doing a fantastic job. I think most of us our very well balanced and consequently have learned how to manage through these ever so short declines in the market without panic.

- Dclark41, April 5, 2012  


- Ricpar, February 2, 2012  


Phil has some great insight into the market. He's given me a different perspective on the market and I know I'm a better trader/investor because of it. I've been trading options since the late 80's and Phil is right. Unless you know what is going to happen (how can you, unless you have insider information), then do what the smart money does - be the house. Remember guys, we're allowed to sell options. If you're afraid to be short, then do a spread to limit your liability. When I think about the money I've made and lost on options, a good approximation is that I win 30% of the time when I do a straight buy; I win about 70% of the time when I do a spread; I win nearly 90% of the time when I sell naked.

- Autolander, April 11, 2012  


I've been trading/investing since the early 80's (my dad started me out young). I've had seven figure accounts (in the past) and I've done lots of trading, so I can say that I'm a well seasoned investor. Phil is the real deal. His trades make sense and his strategy is sound. He sees things that others miss and he's one of the best at finding price anomalies. When he makes a mistake, he has an exit strategy already planned. He hedges very well and he has an instinct which tells him to go to cash or to be all in.

- Autolander, April 13, 2012