Seeking Alpha
If I’d written all the truth I knew for the past ten years, about 600 people - including me - would be rotting in prison cells from Rio to Seattle today. Absolute truth is a very rare and dangerous commodity in the context of professional journalism - Hunter S. Thompson

I apologize in advance to David Luhnow, who is only a staff writer at the Journal and just so happened to write the wrong article at the wrong time to really tick me off. He is just an example and I bear no particular ill will toward him.

Matt Simmons

It’s bad enough that this country is forced to endure Criminal Narrators Boosting Crude and their 24-hour sponsored pump-fest. Bad enough that they choose to give a forum to oil extortionists and peak-oil fanatics while delighting in this plague of high prices that has cost the American people $240Bn a year in windfall profits.

Hunter Thompson

The TV business is uglier than most things. It is normally perceived as some kind of cruel and shallow money trench through the heart of the journalism industry, a long plastic hallway where thieves and pimps run free and good men die like dogs, for no good reason. - Hunter S. Thompson

Bad enough that Criminal Narrators Boosting Crude have driven this market into a speculative frenzy where 10 times more barrels of oil are bought and sold every month than can ever be delivered, but we thought we could at least look to the WSJ to provide "fair and balanced" information rather than more "fear and loathing." My issue with the Journal today is yesterday’s A1 article by the aforementioned Mr. Luhnow entitled "DYING GIANT Mexico Tries to Save A Big, Fading Oil Field."

Wow! Breaking front-page news just when things were calming down in Iran and oil prices looked like they were about to ease off…

But is it news?

Fading Gusher

The Cantarell oil field is producing 1.6Mbd and is predicted to go down to 1.4Mbd in 2008, down from a peak of 2.1Mbd, according to Mexico’s Pemex, the company that has the drilling rights. Is this is due to declining production or just doing their share of the overall OPEC cutback? We don’t know for sure, but we do know that this decline was announced by Luis Corzo, the head of PEMEX on August 12th, 2004.

Perhaps that’s why David Luhnow and the WSJ were able to scoop themselves by running effectively the same story on January 27th, when oil needed a boost off $54 a barrel or on Feb 9th ‘06 when the price of oil was falling from $68 to $63, or July 20th ‘06 when the article was wheeled out again as oil was falling from $78 to $70.

Obviously they pull out the big guns at the Journal whenever oil needs a boost, the timing has as much likelihood of being coincidental as do a series of well-timed stock option grants.

These four WSJ articles (or the same article published as "news" four times, we won’t quibble) spawned 217 other articles using the WSJ as authoritative "proof" of a crisis. While I’d love to track down each of these articles and the motivations behind them, I will content myself to whisper from my dark corner of the parking lot "just follow the money."

So much for Objective Journalism. Don’t bother to look for it here — not under any byline of mine; or anyone else I can think of. With the possible exception of things like box scores, race results, and stock market tabulations, there is no such thing as Objective Journalism. The phrase itself is a pompous contradiction in terms. - Hunter S. Thompson

Production at Cantarell was "boosted" before that through a massive nitrogen injection project that Pemex used to ramp production up from the 1.1Mbd it was producing in its first five years of life all the way to a peak output of 2.1Mbd in 2003. After pulling 2.6Bn barrels out of the field in four greedy years, it’s no wonder Hubbert enthusiasts are able to point to this as "evidence" of peak oil. Peak oil? Certainly not! Peak Greed, Peak Irresponsible Field Management, Peak Manufactured BS by Peak Oil Fanatics desperate to find something that looks like it proves their case - Absolutely!

The fact is that Cantarell’s average production since 1976 has been 1.2Mbd and is currently drifting back down to 1.4Mbd - still an improvement! Also, the part of Cantarell they are drilling is only 60 meters deep so they are running out of the "easy" oil over there. Most of the 30-54Bn barrels of reserves (the new administration has lowered the estimates by 24Bn barrels - causing prices to spike) are in 1,500 meter Gulf deposits, hardly a challenge for modern equipment. The other fact is that other Mexican fields: Ku, Maloob and Zaap - are ramping UP production from 500Kbd now to 800Kbd in 2009, more than offsetting the decline at Cantarell. Funny how that’s never a headline…

History is hard to know, because of all the hired bullsh*t - Hunter S. Thompson

Meanwhile natural gas production in the same Cantarell field has hit a record 5.85Bcf per day. The gas is so plentiful there that Pemex is going to inject it into the fields to boost output instead of more expensive nitrogen that is usually used.

Bag Holders

So why does the WSJ feel it necessary to roll out this very slanted article every time oil starts to dip and why do all the peak oil blogs run with it as if it’s fresh news every time? As PT Barnum famously said, "there’s a sucker born every minute" and that means that, in just the two month period between the last two articles, 86,400 new suckers came into the market, ready to replace the existing oil roaches as the proverbial bag holders.

The Wall Street Journal is not unaware of the weight it carries in the marketplace. In fact, it cultivates that image so by running one-sided "fear" articles such as this - it can be nothing less than willing tools and, given the timing, perhaps much worse. Without a constant environment of fear and worry, it would be very difficult indeed for their sponsors to keep selling oil for a $30 "terror premium."

This blizzard of mind-warping war propaganda out of Washington is building up steam. Monday is Anthrax, Tuesday is Bankruptcy, Friday is Child-Rape, Thursday is Bomb-scares, etc., etc., etc… If we believed all the brutal, frat-boy threats coming out of the White House, we would be dead before Sunday. It is pure and savage terrorism reminiscent of Nazi Germany. - Hunter S. Thompson

Much of western and southern Kuwait is home to some of the largest oil fields in the world. The dark patch of land in southern Kuwait is where the Al-Burqan oil field is located.The same WSJ article goes on to mention similar "depletion" scenarios in Saudi Arabia’s Burgan oil field without bothering to present these facts: Burgan Field in Kuwait was set on fire by Iraqi forces in 1991 and lost three gathering stations but still produces over 1.7Mbd in its 61st year of commercial production. As I’m sure you know, they don’t even have rigs in that field as the oil literally seeps up through cracks in the ground and they just sort of vacuum it up. Kuwait Oil Chairman, Al Zanki said, in 2005 that average production in Burgan will fall from historical 2Mbd to 1.7Mbd over the next 30 to 40 years - surely this is earth shaking proof that peak oil has finally arrived!

Geology

The fact is that both Canterell and Burgan are examples of fields that seem to have formed from cracks in the Earth and support the abiotic view of oil production. Far from peak oil, this field of study suggests that oil is not something we are likely to run out of - EVER - as it is constantly being formed through natural geological processes. It is very possible that the Saudis do not refuse to disclose figures to mask the DEPLETION of their reserves but, rather the VASTNESS of what is truly available given today’s incredible advances in drilling technology.

Rather than go out and solve our numerous supply problems, our government goes out and exacerbates the situation by hoarding oil, starting wars (using over 150Mb a year for the military) and pushing for "alternative fuels" ahead of the much simpler and more immediate approach of conservation and use of, wind, solar and tidal energy that could cut 1/2 of our imports in just a few years (at a cost of far less than the $240Bn per year "terror premium" we are paying now) and, just as importantly, would cut a significant percentage of our greenhouse gas emissions.

Unfortunately, cutting our consumption by 25% would not generate any additional campaign contributions because the $109Bn that conservation would save per year would go into the hands of the American people, not the energy companies or the farmers and, worst of all, it would be a disproportionate redistribution of wealth because a poor person uses just about as much gas as a rich one and the $1,000 saved by every American family would mean nothing to the Kennebunkport crowd.

What the hell is going on here? How could this once-proud nation have changed so much, so drastically, in only a little more than two years. In what seems like the blink of an eye, this George Bush has brought us from a prosperous nation at peace to a broke nation at war. - Hunter S. Thompson

We used to be nation of doers, of problem solvers, but oil companies spent more money last year buying their own skyrocketing stock than they did investing in exploration and production. If Kennedy had asked the big three oil companies to put a man on the moon in 1969, you can be damn sure that footage would have been faked!

Only with the unquestioning cooperation of the mainstream media do we continue to find this situation acceptable. As Orwell said in "1984" "Don’t you see that the whole aim of (their "Newspeak" media) is to narrow the range of thought?… By the year 2050, at the very latest, not a single human being will be alive who could understand such a (rebellious) conversation as we are having now?…The whole climate of thought will be different. In fact, there will be no thought, as we understand it now. Orthodoxy (following the Party) means not thinking—not needing to think."

We are turning into a nation of whimpering slaves to Fear — fear of war, fear of poverty, fear of random terrorism, fear of getting down-sized or fired because of the plunging economy, fear of getting evicted for bad debts, or suddenly getting locked up in a military detention camp on vague charges of being a Terrorist sympathizer. - Hunter S. Thompson


Rolling Stone

There was of course one man that tried to get us to start conserving energy, two men actually, and you must read this hilarious and tragic Republican Senate Policy Committee document tearing Clinton and Gore apart for trying to do something about global warming and energy consumption in 1997 because it would increase the price of gas by "13 cents per gallon of gasoline" in 2012. Way back in 1977, Jimmy Carter declared U.S. energy waste to be "the moral equivalent of war." He went so far as to dim the lights at the White House and turn-off outside lighting on the District of Columbia monuments. Republican nay-sayers raucously criticized Carter for his vulgar expression of defeatism. While they laughed at his attempt to address the complex subject of energy usage, they squandered the time needed to bring the U.S. energy policy into the 21st century.

Inside the Bush Dynasty

U.S. energy companies contributed over $100M in 2000 alone to make sure Al Gore didn’t take a seat in the Oval Office.

There was one exact moment, in fact, when I knew for sure that Al Gore would never be President of the United States, no matter what the experts were saying — and that was when the whole Bush family suddenly appeared on TV and openly scoffed at the idea of Gore winning Florida. It was Nonsense, said the Candidate, Utter nonsense. . . Anybody who believed Bush had lost Florida was a Fool. The Media, all of them, were Liars & Dunces or treacherous whores trying to sabotage his victory. . . Here was the whole bloody Family laughing & hooting & sneering at the dumbness of the whole world on National TV. The old man was the real tip-off. The leer on his face was almost frightening. It was like looking into the eyes of a tall hyena with a living sheep in its mouth. The sheep’s fate was sealed, and so was Al Gore’s. - Hunter S. Thompson

And so was ours.

From Philip Davis:

USO, QQQ- Phil, thanks for these plays. Out of USO for about 65% gain today and just keeping 1/4 QQQ.

- Ksone88, July 14, 2011  


Phil, You were on the $ today with your calls almost exactly on the turns – Krap kuhn krup (Thai for thank you very much).

- Jomptien, July 14, 2011  


Thanks for the USO directions today. Made it 3 times (up/down/up) for a very nice win.

- Doro165, August 2, 2011  


Phil, I don’t know how I can thank you enough for your guidance this past week. I’m up significantly in my portfolio and I’ve never been so relaxed watching the market panic. Thanks once again for being here for us.

- thechaser, August 2, 2011  


Oil – thanks Phil, got in late at 0.53 on the 38p today, set a sell for 0.75 and took the dog for a walk – 70% gain and more than enough $$ to buy dog food. TZA Aug 35/40 BCS – closed out for a 100% gain in under a month – thanks again for introducing me to these trades.

- CanuckBob, August 2, 2011  


GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday. Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15% on the options. And lots of them. Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well.

- lflantheman, August 2, 2011  


Your board has been fantastic helping the less experienced (includes me) navigate through all the turmoil. The contributions from your members has been well rounded, objective, and extremely helpful. Sans the politics you have built a fantastic community and that is a tribute to you. I thank you and all fellow members for there contributions over the past few days. Fantastic group!

- dclark41, August 3, 2011  


Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!

- Jromeha, August 5, 2011  


On Optrader’s section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers’. I’ve got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it’s hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I’ve learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

- Iflantheman, August 8, 2011  


Thank God for Phil. A few months ago (April) I didn´t even know what hedging was, and someone recommended I should check out some of Phil´s plays, especially on the retirement portfolio. When I first started to read it, none of it made a blind bit of sense to me, but I stuck with it and gradually began to work through some of the trades to see how it worked. Now I am putting on 5:1 SPY backspreads combined with bear put spreads, entering and leaving positions after consulting the VIX, and engaging in other esoteric maneuvers that are keeping my portfolio above water.

- jmm1951, August 18, 2011  


I took $2 (up 133%) and ran on those USO puts, quite a bit more than the 20 you played in the $25KP. Thank you once again for turning a bad market week into a great personal week. You will be happy to know I am back to cashy and cautious with a few of your favorite longs into the weekend. Thanks to Phil, JRW and all the members who share their knowledge here.

- Dennis, August 18, 2011  


Phil, I just wanted to say thanks for being there. The world needs more of you. Your site continues to positively change my life daily.

- Chasw, October 18, 2011  


GIVE THANKS/PHIL Have not done my 10,000 hours, but a couple of years at PSW, and moved from fishing with a single line to owner of a commercial trawler (metaphorically speaking). Now I fish with many lines. It is amazing when you go over the same information time and time again, eventually it clicks. Like planting trees; being the house, 20% sale items, selling into the excitement. and patience. I just sold an AAPL Jan 12 340/390 BCS financed by the sales of Jan 12 275 Put. The trade was put on one year ago for a net credit and exited five minutes ago for a 49 dollar per contract profit. No point in waiting till opex to see what happens, and I will just sell 10 of those VLO puts to make myself net the round 50. I no longer worry about opex coming as I have adjusted well in time for most positions that go against me. I still make some howlers (RIMM, TBT, TRGT) but I play the percentages and my winners outdistance my losers by many miles. I would never be in this position if it were not for Phil. He is a treasure, pure and simple. The goose that lays the golden egg if we care to listen and practice. Phil, a mighty big thank you.

- Winston, January 5, 2012  


It is amazing how much confidence you engender, Phil………..I knew the 1% a day trades and repeated often were possible as I had done in stretches, and I knew kill zone trades were also possible and 5% to 10% returns per month were very possible with practice, experience and smart risk management all without having to take a lot of risk, but I guess I was talking to the disbelievers and since I have dropped them into my 'why bother to try to explain it' file and come over to the dark side at PSW I feel soooo much more content not only with the returns, but with the company and a comments and the obvious opportunity to learn and learn and learn some more. It all helps the mental and emotional discipline of the trading too. So thanks again.

- Roro, January 11, 2012  


Way to go Phil! Have I said how much I appreciate your site lately! Your ability to teach and your willingless to give others a forum to demonstrate their own skill sets makes your site remarkable. I got great help from you, jmm1951, and Iflantheman (special thanks!) today. Hell, if I have many more days like this I may even be able to sign up for a full year rather than doing it just quarterly. Tomorrow is another day but, fabulous job today!

- dclark41, January 25, 2012  


Phil- I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.

- Acd54, January 25, 2012  


Maya, After years of being pretty good at picking stocks I still managed to lose almost as much as I made.All the reading Phil asked us to do as a new member (And everything else I can get my hands on lately) has revealed my Achilles Heal.Good stock picks do not necessarily make money. My problem was swinging for the fences. Since becoming a member Jan 1 this year and getting into to scaling into small trades I am amazed at the steady profit growth I have experienced already while not worrying about getting killed. And having fun doing it.. Phil, Thanks for the education, the help you give and the chance to learn more and get better. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around.

- Ricpar, February 2, 2012  


You are doing a fantastic job. I think most of us our very well balanced and consequently have learned how to manage through these ever so short declines in the market without panic.

- Dclark41, April 5, 2012  


- Ricpar, February 2, 2012  


Phil has some great insight into the market. He's given me a different perspective on the market and I know I'm a better trader/investor because of it. I've been trading options since the late 80's and Phil is right. Unless you know what is going to happen (how can you, unless you have insider information), then do what the smart money does - be the house. Remember guys, we're allowed to sell options. If you're afraid to be short, then do a spread to limit your liability. When I think about the money I've made and lost on options, a good approximation is that I win 30% of the time when I do a straight buy; I win about 70% of the time when I do a spread; I win nearly 90% of the time when I sell naked.

- Autolander, April 11, 2012  


I've been trading/investing since the early 80's (my dad started me out young). I've had seven figure accounts (in the past) and I've done lots of trading, so I can say that I'm a well seasoned investor. Phil is the real deal. His trades make sense and his strategy is sound. He sees things that others miss and he's one of the best at finding price anomalies. When he makes a mistake, he has an exit strategy already planned. He hedges very well and he has an instinct which tells him to go to cash or to be all in.

- Autolander, April 13, 2012