Thrill A Minute Thursday: Will The Bernanke Bounce Hold? [View article]
I wouldn't want to make a short-term guess but we're very comfortable with the value down here, especially as we're hedging them down to below $4 so I hope the guys buying at $6 were correct - we only need them to hold $5 to make good money.
Wrong-Way Wednesday: No QE3 For You [View article]
I am not long USO, DIA and GLD, perhaps I hit the wrong button on SA's question thing but we have not changed our short-term bearish stance (which is sucking for us so far!).
If today ends at or near the highs - we then may reconsider.
Full Throttle Friday: Dollar Dive Does Bears In [View article]
We don't let FAS become a problem because we sell premium (short calls), we don't buy it, so the decay works in our favor. Occasionally, we'll do a bullish play on FAS of no more than a month but, after that, the decay tends to get you - especially in a choppy market.
Full Throttle Friday: Dollar Dive Does Bears In [View article]
FAS and XLF are both useful for different time-frames. In our FAS Money trade, we're long XLF because it doesn't decay and short on weekly FAS calls (when we're bearish, of course).
As to RIG, they got low enough for us to sell short puts on them.
Different terms. AA is a long-term spread trade we work every week with short put and call sales, FAS and IWM are too but they are generally bullish positions over the long term, we call them out "money" trades as our aim is to make a weekly income from them. The other 4 we went long in Monday's morning post and they should be closing today as we probably don't want to push it over the weekend.
We have many, many 2013 and 2014 plays but they are boring and we don't talk about them - it's the short-term plays that get all the press but, in reality, most of us are long-term investors and we day-trade for fun while we wait for our longer-term positions to mature.
Wednesday Whiplash: Coordinated Central Bank Action Traps Bears [View article]
That chart was from Slope of Hope - it's been corrected on my site and should be on SA soon as well. I copied a link thinking it was done by JRW so my bad. This is why I usually stick to guys who are already in our Chart School - so we know we have permission to use them...
Just Another Cyber Monday (Manic Edition) [View article]
Yes, a very touchy subject on both sides.
I think that clip from Fawlty Towers sums up the issue nicely - of course that was from about the 70s - so closer to the bone then.
You have to give the Brits another generation to forgive and forget - my Mom, for example, was born during the Blitz on London and, to this day, is terrified of explosions. My Granfather's house was blown up and he and my Grandmother were taken to separate hospitals and it was over a week before they found out each other weren't dead - not the kind of thing you forget (or forgive) and not the kind of thing their children forget and, while I have the perspective to forgive - obviously I don't forget either and I will certainly pass those stories down to my children who, I'm sure, will remember who the "bad guys" are too.
So 70 years is not a long time and the British, being much better at history than we are, have a rough time forgiving France as well, who were the invaders and plotters and shemers behind almost every war for 500 years - not to mention, they were the bastards who helped the Americans hand them their worst defeat (they still call us "the colonies").
Of course, if you're Irish - I'm sure you know how hard it is to forgive and forget as the Brits certainly knew how to dish it out as well.
Just Another Cyber Monday (Manic Edition) [View article]
Sorry Carve but I'm not sure it's anti-German to make historical references in which Germans just so happened to be "the bad guys."
My Grandfather was English and I must have been about 10 before I knew the proper name for the people wasn't "Bloody Germans" but I married a German girl so I do know how sensitive some of the family can be about things I think are funny.
Monday Madness: G20 FinMins Set 2-Week Deadline [View article]
Well it's a simplification, of course. The point is that you increase the money supply by 50% and if we simply go back to the same level of consumption we had 3 years ago - then GDP expands by 50%. We're not consuming 33% less, there's a multiplying effect in between 0% and 50% and all sorts of numbers you can plug into a formula after spending a few years in grad school studying monetary theory but, the short story is - more money moving slower = steady GDP. More money moving faster = rising GDP. Rising GDP not keeping up with real gains in production/consumption = inflation. There's at least $35,000 worth of grad school for you!
Monday Market Movement – 10 Days of '11 [View article]
Yes, more ships are a factor but keep in mind those are FORECASTS for a glut to come, not a measurement of a current glut that explains away a 50% drop in 6 months (see, I do read the links!).
I would check links to your data, but there isn't one but I do have this one for you to consider as most of the additional shipping of iron and coal has been caused not so much by a demand for more coal (all cargo was up just 6% in 2010 after falling 11% in 2009 so all they are doing is projecting a return to not so far above 2008 levels on the whole with the "record" ) but a demand for iron and coal in China, which is far away from the iron and coal that is being produced and thus has to be loaded on ships, which inflates the shipping data above the actual physical demand for product.
So we have a 7% projected increase in dry shipments of things that are not in short supply leading to a 50% rise in speculative prices and you don't think it's a bubble? Well, you can be happy to know you have a willing counter-party to your bullish bets this year!
By the way Al and C, last year we ran a "Free Picks" portfolio where every single trade was published in the main post before the markets even opened. That portfolio gained 350% and you can go over each and every one of those trades (there's even a review when we closed it) and verify those without even being a member.
Wow such anger from contender and Al... I'm not going to sit here and defend myself and every single trade we make in the member portfolios ($10KP, $25KP, DTP) is printed in chat BEFORE the trade is made. That has been our system for over a year. Nobody claims to make 300% a month so if you are going to attempt to disparage someone elses work perhaps you should "get real" - whatever your problem is with me, you can resolve it simply by just not reading what I write. If it's not helpful to you, why waste your time - surely you don't have that much of it???
I'd personally rather spend mine answering legitimate questions like Blue Dogs.
On BAC - We already had the 2010 $35s back on 4/14 and we've been scaling into it over time following the gameplan from this article: www.philstockworld.com.../
We thought the financials were cheap then and we really think they are cheap now but it is key to take a long position, sell calls against it and roll the position to a lower strike as it falls, selling more calls along the way. This helps mitigate some, but not all of the losses and BAC is currently down 50% on us despite the scaling in but we are now in the 2010 $25 calls for a net of about $6.
The banks have been a real disaster and the financials make up close to 20% of our Long-Term Portfolio, which got killed the past two days.
As Al points out, these are just my trades and I'm not a financial advisor and you should ALWAYS consult a financial advisor before making any trade.
If I were still sitting on the BAC 2010 $35s at $1.20 I would be looking just to get even and I would roll the calls to the Jan '09 $22.50s at $3.10 (+$1.90) and sell 1/2 covers of the current $22.50s for $1.15 with a plan on rolling those to a full cover of the Aug $25s, which now sell for $1.08 so my expectation is to get $1.15 premium on 1/2 of my calls (.77) plus hopefully another $1 for the $25s so that's $1.77 of my $1.90 roll paid for.
My game plan going forward would be to get at least $1 of premium per month selling calls and if I do that for Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec that's $4 per contract made up plus whatever residual value I have left in the Jan position. Realistically, I'd probably double up the position on the roll as that way I only need to sell $2.50 worth of calls and retain my $3 value to get even, which is a much more obtainable goal.
Thrill A Minute Thursday: Will The Bernanke Bounce Hold? [View article]
Wrong-Way Wednesday: No QE3 For You [View article]
If today ends at or near the highs - we then may reconsider.
Wednesday Worries: Yentervention, Euro Style [View article]
Wednesday Worries: Yentervention, Euro Style [View article]
Wednesday Worries: Yentervention, Euro Style [View article]
Full Throttle Friday: Dollar Dive Does Bears In [View article]
Full Throttle Friday: Dollar Dive Does Bears In [View article]
As to RIG, they got low enough for us to sell short puts on them.
Thrill Is Gone Thursday: Already? [View article]
We have many, many 2013 and 2014 plays but they are boring and we don't talk about them - it's the short-term plays that get all the press but, in reality, most of us are long-term investors and we day-trade for fun while we wait for our longer-term positions to mature.
Wednesday Whiplash: Coordinated Central Bank Action Traps Bears [View article]
Just Another Cyber Monday (Manic Edition) [View article]
I think that clip from Fawlty Towers sums up the issue nicely - of course that was from about the 70s - so closer to the bone then.
You have to give the Brits another generation to forgive and forget - my Mom, for example, was born during the Blitz on London and, to this day, is terrified of explosions. My Granfather's house was blown up and he and my Grandmother were taken to separate hospitals and it was over a week before they found out each other weren't dead - not the kind of thing you forget (or forgive) and not the kind of thing their children forget and, while I have the perspective to forgive - obviously I don't forget either and I will certainly pass those stories down to my children who, I'm sure, will remember who the "bad guys" are too.
So 70 years is not a long time and the British, being much better at history than we are, have a rough time forgiving France as well, who were the invaders and plotters and shemers behind almost every war for 500 years - not to mention, they were the bastards who helped the Americans hand them their worst defeat (they still call us "the colonies").
Of course, if you're Irish - I'm sure you know how hard it is to forgive and forget as the Brits certainly knew how to dish it out as well.
Just Another Cyber Monday (Manic Edition) [View article]
My Grandfather was English and I must have been about 10 before I knew the proper name for the people wasn't "Bloody Germans" but I married a German girl so I do know how sensitive some of the family can be about things I think are funny.
In short: "Don't mention the war!"
http://bit.ly/uso1sn
Monday Madness: G20 FinMins Set 2-Week Deadline [View article]
Spark notes is good for this stuff: http://bit.ly/prNww9
Monday Market Movement – 10 Days of '11 [View article]
I would check links to your data, but there isn't one but I do have this one for you to consider as most of the additional shipping of iron and coal has been caused not so much by a demand for more coal (all cargo was up just 6% in 2010 after falling 11% in 2009 so all they are doing is projecting a return to not so far above 2008 levels on the whole with the "record" ) but a demand for iron and coal in China, which is far away from the iron and coal that is being produced and thus has to be loaded on ships, which inflates the shipping data above the actual physical demand for product.
www.thomaswhite.com/ex...
So we have a 7% projected increase in dry shipments of things that are not in short supply leading to a 50% rise in speculative prices and you don't think it's a bubble? Well, you can be happy to know you have a willing counter-party to your bullish bets this year!
Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook [View article]
Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook [View article]
I'd personally rather spend mine answering legitimate questions like Blue Dogs.
On BAC - We already had the 2010 $35s back on 4/14 and we've been scaling into it over time following the gameplan from this article: www.philstockworld.com.../
We thought the financials were cheap then and we really think they are cheap now but it is key to take a long position, sell calls against it and roll the position to a lower strike as it falls, selling more calls along the way. This helps mitigate some, but not all of the losses and BAC is currently down 50% on us despite the scaling in but we are now in the 2010 $25 calls for a net of about $6.
The banks have been a real disaster and the financials make up close to 20% of our Long-Term Portfolio, which got killed the past two days.
As Al points out, these are just my trades and I'm not a financial advisor and you should ALWAYS consult a financial advisor before making any trade.
If I were still sitting on the BAC 2010 $35s at $1.20 I would be looking just to get even and I would roll the calls to the Jan '09 $22.50s at $3.10 (+$1.90) and sell 1/2 covers of the current $22.50s for $1.15 with a plan on rolling those to a full cover of the Aug $25s, which now sell for $1.08 so my expectation is to get $1.15 premium on 1/2 of my calls (.77) plus hopefully another $1 for the $25s so that's $1.77 of my $1.90 roll paid for.
My game plan going forward would be to get at least $1 of premium per month selling calls and if I do that for Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec that's $4 per contract made up plus whatever residual value I have left in the Jan position. Realistically, I'd probably double up the position on the roll as that way I only need to sell $2.50 worth of calls and retain my $3 value to get even, which is a much more obtainable goal.