Friday The 13th's Follow-Through Failure Forecast [View article]
Europe was a big topic of conversation in this week's Stock World Weekly, it's a free trial if you haven't tried it already: http://bit.ly/wf3mDE
TZA is a good choice - one of our disaster hedges along with SCO and EDZ. SCO is already a huge winner for us as we took them at oil $103.50. With TZA, rather than spend now $23.81 for the stock, we like to play a spread. For example, you can pick up the Feb $22/27 bull call spread for $1.50 and sell the $22 puts for $1.35 so you have the $5 spread for net $15 and your worst case is you end up owning them for net $22.15 so a bit of a cushion vs. owning the stock and, depending on your margin - you tie up less cash.
You can make that trade far less directional by using a different offset - something bullish you REALLY want to own if the market gets cheaper. Let's say, for example, you like BTU below $35 - you can sell the BTU Feb $34 puts for $1.45 and now you have net .05 on the $5 spread and if the market falls further, you get paid on the TZA and probably own BTU for net $34.05 but, if the market goes up and your TZA goes worthless on you - it's very unlikely BTU goes down and that makes your insurance play free.
There are many beaten-down stocks like X, CHK, TM, HPQ.. that you can use as bullish offsets to bearish hedges - it makes your insurance a lot cheaper when you play it like this but, of course, it's very important that you actually want to establish a long-term position in the offsetting stock you are selling puts against.
As indicated in the link, I'm going by usually reliable Briefing.com list but Kskee is right, nothing confirming on SIRI web site and last earnings weren't until 2/26 so May 27 does make sense.
Oil Inventories On the Rise: Where's the Shortage? [View article]
Whiner, you are correct (or possibly correct because there are no accurate records) - as I said above, those "supplies" include oil and gas (and, in XOM's case chemicals), I just converted the whole lot into barrels as it's less complicated to wrap our heads around.
Tom, you can be aware of a trap, you can understand the trap, you can know how you got into a trap but that doesn't mean you can get out...
Cross, after this busy weekend I can just sit back and see if the markets bear me out. We've already made our plays so good luck to all on their positions!
Oil Price Manipulation: Taking from the Poor to Give to the Rich [View article]
OK, I see we are getting caught up on math which was just an example...
Here's an even easier way to look at it.
When gas was $1.55 per gallon, XOM made a 13% profit - so every gallon you purchased included a .20 profit for XOM - this is an audited fact!
Now gas is $2.50 a gallon (forgetting the past 6 months) and XOM is making an 18% profit. That means you are now giving XOM (or whoever) .45 for each gallon you purchase.
Just like with any utility (most of which are sensibly regulated), your demand is inflexible so they can charge any rate of profit they wish. You can say the money went here or this expense or that expense or tax or terror or speculators or any BS you wish to use but the absolute mathematical fact is that Exxon is making 38% more profits while you are paying 66% more for energy.
They could have maintained their margins or even let them drift up a few points but instead, they found you mugged and beaten on the street and they stopped to bend over and go through you wallet to get your last couple of bucks. Yeah God bless 'em, they're just patriotic Americans trying to scrape by as best they can...
Friday The 13th's Follow-Through Failure Forecast [View article]
TZA is a good choice - one of our disaster hedges along with SCO and EDZ. SCO is already a huge winner for us as we took them at oil $103.50. With TZA, rather than spend now $23.81 for the stock, we like to play a spread. For example, you can pick up the Feb $22/27 bull call spread for $1.50 and sell the $22 puts for $1.35 so you have the $5 spread for net $15 and your worst case is you end up owning them for net $22.15 so a bit of a cushion vs. owning the stock and, depending on your margin - you tie up less cash.
You can make that trade far less directional by using a different offset - something bullish you REALLY want to own if the market gets cheaper. Let's say, for example, you like BTU below $35 - you can sell the BTU Feb $34 puts for $1.45 and now you have net .05 on the $5 spread and if the market falls further, you get paid on the TZA and probably own BTU for net $34.05 but, if the market goes up and your TZA goes worthless on you - it's very unlikely BTU goes down and that makes your insurance play free.
There are many beaten-down stocks like X, CHK, TM, HPQ.. that you can use as bullish offsets to bearish hedges - it makes your insurance a lot cheaper when you play it like this but, of course, it's very important that you actually want to establish a long-term position in the offsetting stock you are selling puts against.
Options Trader: Monday Outlook [View article]
Oil Inventories On the Rise: Where's the Shortage? [View article]
Tom, you can be aware of a trap, you can understand the trap, you can know how you got into a trap but that doesn't mean you can get out...
Cross, after this busy weekend I can just sit back and see if the markets bear me out. We've already made our plays so good luck to all on their positions!
Amaranth: Tip of the Iceberg [View article]
There are crawlers that grab blogs quickly after they are published and the main site (philstocks.blogspot.co.../) posts, usually, before 9:30 am.
Amaranth: Tip of the Iceberg [View article]
Oil Price Manipulation: Taking from the Poor to Give to the Rich [View article]
Oil Price Manipulation: Taking from the Poor to Give to the Rich [View article]
Here's an even easier way to look at it.
When gas was $1.55 per gallon, XOM made a 13% profit - so every gallon you purchased included a .20 profit for XOM - this is an audited fact!
Now gas is $2.50 a gallon (forgetting the past 6 months) and XOM is making an 18% profit. That means you are now giving XOM (or whoever) .45 for each gallon you purchase.
Just like with any utility (most of which are sensibly regulated), your demand is inflexible so they can charge any rate of profit they wish. You can say the money went here or this expense or that expense or tax or terror or speculators or any BS you wish to use but the absolute mathematical fact is that Exxon is making 38% more profits while you are paying 66% more for energy.
They could have maintained their margins or even let them drift up a few points but instead, they found you mugged and beaten on the street and they stopped to bend over and go through you wallet to get your last couple of bucks. Yeah God bless 'em, they're just patriotic Americans trying to scrape by as best they can...