Tempting Tuesday: Baa, Baa To The Sheeple [View article]
If you look top left you'll see 1,707 published articles in date order that you can review.
If I had to guess, I'd say there must be at least 3,000 specific trade ideas - certainly a pretty good sample over the years.
We make plenty of bad bets but we generally work them out - it's one of the skills we teach people. The real "trick" is not to play all bull or all bear - we trade a range and, at the bottom of a range we get more bullish and, at the top of a range, we get more bearish and then we try to cash out our positions when they are ahead.
Tempting Tuesday: Baa, Baa To The Sheeple [View article]
It's all about earnings. We think down to $390 is about right but we're not playing the week more long-term bearish to be safe - in case they pop 10% the other way.
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
ROFL - Today's article was "too political" for SA to publish. Only it wasn't about politics at all, it's about Fox News (D Virginia's link above) and the way they spew propaganda to meet their political ends.
SA thinks you folks are too sensitive for potentially controversial material.
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
Wow, really? Is this how you people reason?
Look, here's an inflation calculator, it's a FACT. It tells you what a thing that cost $300 in 1990 is worth today ($520.25) and it's not $1,700! For goodness sakes - this is not complicated!!!
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
ANWR has about a year's worth of oil at most. This is your solution? That, in a nutshell, is what's wrong with this country - you make an impassioned, cogent argument based on a completely flawed premise that I'm sure you think is somehow valid but it's nothing but another red herring thrown out by the red party so they can promise more chickens for every pot while running this nation down the road to ruin:
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
I agree, the end game is hyperinflation, just like we had in the late 70s that allowed all our parents to pay off their mortgages and sell their homes for 4x what they paid and end up with retirement money so they could all tell us what smart investors they were. The Government did it then and they'll do it again but, as I mentioned above, we need wage inflation to get the ball rolling. Currently the Fed is causing top-down inflation and that's killing the consumers.
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
Apparently that's exactly what you're doing. Don't try to do anything good because it can only end up badly - is that about what you're saying. "They" are all crooks so give up? I'm glad your name isn't Dr. Watson or we'd all be sitting around in candlelight as I'm sure you would have convinced Edison that attempt number 400 on the electric light-bulb wasn't worth trying....
Energy security should be part of National Security and we manage to push almost $1Tn per year in that direction. That's kind of a slush fund for Republicans last I heard but where's your outrage? Were you upset when the President of Haliburton became the VP of the United States and suddenly we found ourselves in a war that made Billions for Haliburton?
The simple solution is, rather than going to war over oil, find an alternative to oil. Maybe even find something, like solar, that the US can take leadership in and export our energy solutions throughout the World, improving our balance of trade and creating Millions of jobs at home.
Will there be some failures? Sure there will, that's what trying is all about. Winners keep trying until they get it right because they have their eye on the big picture, not the petty nonsense that some like to focus on because it's always easier to give up than get up and try again, isn't it?
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
I think we're priced to perfection at the moment and the Global macros are far from perfect so there's not really any sector I like except, perhaps, utilities as a boring long-term bet, Financials as an eventually recovering sector (but never again where they were) and perhaps home-builders, where you can let companies with sound management like HOV use their expertise to leverage capital and pick up land cheaply on your behalf while we wait (perhaps for years) for hyperinflation to kick in and housing to turn around.
Until we get wage inflation, we won't get the kind of hyperinflation we're looking for and we're still a long way from wage inflation.
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
The Dollar topped out at 120 against the same basket we use today, now it's 80 so down 30%. What about other things you exchange Dollars for? Are wages up 4x? Homes, cars, food, clothing, movie tickets, hammers, nails, lumber??? Your premise says gold is somehow special but it's not, it's a thing you exchange Dollars for and if the Dollar goes down in value, then ALL things you exchange Dollars for go up in price. When one thing goes up 10x more than the others - it's not very likely that that one thing is priced correctly and everything else should be 10x more expensive, is it?
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
Thanks Default. I know - people want easy answers that fit into a tweet rather than engage in an ongoing discussion of market conditions that evolve over time.
What to buy, Mlbex? Well, as an example from today's Member Chat - AFTER we added our primary hedges, of course:
How about BBY? They are getting no respect at $24.64 ($8.6Bn cap) despite a forward p/e of 6.5 (8.6 current) and $50Bn in sales and $1.2Bn in profits in what has clearly been a poor retail environment. They bought back $1Bn (11%) worth of their stock last year which means they should have good comps this year with earnings coming on 3/29 that have light expectations of $2.16 vs $1.98 last year for Dec/Jan/Feb. You can sell Jan $23 puts for $2.55 for a net $20.45 entry (17% off) and, if you want to be aggressive, the Jan $23/30 bull call spread is $2.75 for net .20 on the $7 spread that's $1.67 in the money to start (up 700% on cash).
I don't know what you "should" be buying but the way we balance our portfolios - this one fits right in.
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
Gold isn't up 466% because the Dollar fell 80% - that's the point. Gold is up on fear and greed and has nothing to do with a realistic assessment of it's actual value - even as an inflation hedge (unless you are hedging 2051 and not 2015). The Dollar is down about 20% from when gold was $300 an ounce so $360 - sure. Assume the Dollar drops 40% more and run gold all the way to $800 - sure. Over $850 - silly.
Tempting Tuesday: Baa, Baa To The Sheeple [View article]
If I had to guess, I'd say there must be at least 3,000 specific trade ideas - certainly a pretty good sample over the years.
We make plenty of bad bets but we generally work them out - it's one of the skills we teach people. The real "trick" is not to play all bull or all bear - we trade a range and, at the bottom of a range we get more bullish and, at the top of a range, we get more bearish and then we try to cash out our positions when they are ahead.
I know it's a radical concept.
Tempting Tuesday: Baa, Baa To The Sheeple [View article]
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
SA thinks you folks are too sensitive for potentially controversial material.
Sorry.
http://bit.ly/zj97lC
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
Look, here's an inflation calculator, it's a FACT. It tells you what a thing that cost $300 in 1990 is worth today ($520.25) and it's not $1,700! For goodness sakes - this is not complicated!!!
http://bit.ly/vkq0Nl
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
http://bit.ly/zjBo7I
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
Energy security should be part of National Security and we manage to push almost $1Tn per year in that direction. That's kind of a slush fund for Republicans last I heard but where's your outrage? Were you upset when the President of Haliburton became the VP of the United States and suddenly we found ourselves in a war that made Billions for Haliburton?
The simple solution is, rather than going to war over oil, find an alternative to oil. Maybe even find something, like solar, that the US can take leadership in and export our energy solutions throughout the World, improving our balance of trade and creating Millions of jobs at home.
Will there be some failures? Sure there will, that's what trying is all about. Winners keep trying until they get it right because they have their eye on the big picture, not the petty nonsense that some like to focus on because it's always easier to give up than get up and try again, isn't it?
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
Until we get wage inflation, we won't get the kind of hyperinflation we're looking for and we're still a long way from wage inflation.
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
What to buy, Mlbex? Well, as an example from today's Member Chat - AFTER we added our primary hedges, of course:
How about BBY? They are getting no respect at $24.64 ($8.6Bn cap) despite a forward p/e of 6.5 (8.6 current) and $50Bn in sales and $1.2Bn in profits in what has clearly been a poor retail environment. They bought back $1Bn (11%) worth of their stock last year which means they should have good comps this year with earnings coming on 3/29 that have light expectations of $2.16 vs $1.98 last year for Dec/Jan/Feb. You can sell Jan $23 puts for $2.55 for a net $20.45 entry (17% off) and, if you want to be aggressive, the Jan $23/30 bull call spread is $2.75 for net .20 on the $7 spread that's $1.67 in the money to start (up 700% on cash).
I don't know what you "should" be buying but the way we balance our portfolios - this one fits right in.
Monday Market Movement: Ship Of Fools Sets Sail [View article]
JMHO (and Buffett's): http://tgr.ph/AjVF9w