Easy Money Monday: Robbing Peter To Pay Portugal [View article]
Wow, you really are a day trader, aren't you? When we make an offsetting pair trade, especially - we don't worry about the offset as we EXPECT it to lose money when our main trade (DXD, in that case) is doing well. Our premise is that DXD may go up to $2+ but we're fairly confident FCX will not fail $33 or, if it does, we want to buy it anyway.
As it's still $38 (and the Feb puts are $1.45), we're not at all concerned yet. The DXDs are $1.40 so the relationship is sound (even) and let's not forget it's a hedge, not a bet so we HOPE, on the whole, that the DXDs will expire worthless as do the short puts for, essentially, a no-trade.
Even if we get our $2+ and cash out the DXDs, we still expect to end up not paying the DXD putter but, if they do continue to fall, the Feb $33 puts ($1.45) can be rolled to the May $27 puts (now $1.40) and those, in turn, to the 2013 $18 puts, now $1.30. If you don't REALLY want to own DXD for $18 (52% off) then why the hell would you be selling puts against it in the first place?
TGIF: Saved By The Bell Or On A Highway To Hell? [View article]
I'm totally in favor of a transaction tax or anything else that gets robots out of the trading business. I'm a fundamental trader at heart and I would much prefer to spend my days simply looking for undervalued companies and making long-term bets.
While we talk about our short-term trading, because it's more exciting, we still advocate keeping most of the portfolio in longer-term investments and ignoring the daily, weekly and monthly nonsense in the marktet. Our Income Portfolio had one trade in the past 30 days and has hit it's year goal after 6 months - believe me, THAT's the kind of trading I like to do!
One of the reasons I went into the markets is BECAUSE you aren't supposed to have to work every day. HFT makes that almost impossible because, any time you're not looking - a computer comes along and tries to steal your money!
It's not healthy for the system to the point which it affects companies and discourages them from communicating with the public (less a statement be misinterpreted) and encourages generally bad corporate behavior that focuses only on short-term goals, because investors (especially electronic ones) have no patientce for R&D or capital investments that impact short-term profits.
We were just looking at TEF the other day. It's based in Spain but provides service all over Europe and Latin America. They are trading at $18.74 and pay a $1.69 dividend (9%) and they are projected to be flat at about $2.30 a share for the next couple of years, which gives them a p/e of 8.14 on $86Bn in revenues.
This is the kind of company we lock up into our Long-Term Portfolios because you can buy the stock for $18.74 and sell the June $15 calls for $4.50 and the June $17.50 puts for $2 and that puts you in for a net cost of $12.24 and, if called away at $15 (which is 20% below the current price!), you make $2.76 plus .85 in dividends, which is 29.5% in 8 months.
If the stock finishes below $17.50, another round will be put to you at that price and then you will own 2x at net $14.87 so, of course, you don't make a trade like this unless you REALLY want to own 2x for net $15 but, as I mentioned, that's a 20% discount and, if they continue to pay a $1.70 dividend, owning 2x for $15 is very nice.
See, now that's the kinds of trades we make all the time but, once we make them, there's nothing to talk about. In all likelihood, we get called away in June with a 29% gain and we simply move on to the next opportunity. It's not exciting, but it's how we put the bulk of our allocations to work. The day-trading is to just pass the time while we wait for good opportunities like this one.
Which Way Wednesday: Popping Or Topping With The $100 Oil Scam? [View article]
My my, aren't we testy.
Both links I used go somehwere when I click them and the 2nd link does have the chart I indicated but low on the page. I'm not sure that saying "Stockcharts-dot-com" really qualifies as providing a link but I'm sure it does in your mind...
So I see you use the logic that, since oil collapsed just as Bush was finally being shown the door, you will ignore the fact that for the other 7 years of his term oil averaged over 100% higher than the price you are using.
I guess I'll accept your logic and credit Obama with a 100% gain in the markets - making him the most economically successful President in history by your logic - so I guess we should make him Emporer for life and continue his reign of uniterrupted prosperity?
Lies, damned lies and statistics, Skookum - Mark Twain had your number 100 years ago...
Which Way Wednesday: Popping Or Topping With The $100 Oil Scam? [View article]
I'll be writing about the mechanics in the morning as we have a great example of how the shell game is played.
Meanwhile, TBoone is part of the process - he gets his guest spot on CNBC whenever they need to jam up oil prices. Today he actually said "$300-$500 oil prices" if Saudi Arabia has a revolution - as if there is no such thing as unaffordable to consumers who, presumably, will pay $300 to fill up their tank.
Maybe along with hyperinflation that includes major wage increases but, in this environment - completely ridiculous but that's what TBoone and the peak oil crowd are pushing for - a World that is run with the sole purpose of scrounging up enough money to pay the oil men.
Which Way Wednesday: Popping Or Topping With The $100 Oil Scam? [View article]
Sleep is highly overrated.
I don't sleep much and I'm not up every night but when things are excting in the markets, I tend to get out of bed and go check the computer and, since we have Members all around the World, there's always plenty of people on-line to chat with.
Which Way Wednesday: Popping Or Topping With The $100 Oil Scam? [View article]
Wasn't that hysterical?
Burned us but we pressed our bets at $102, of course. At worst, we figure this is a pump job to stick it to drivers at the pump over Thanksgiving but, after that, things should normalize.
Which Way Wednesday: Popping Or Topping With The $100 Oil Scam? [View article]
Not 2 weeks but 2 more weeks. And actually, with a 700M - oh, excuse me, 698Mb SPR and all but 3M barrels of our daily oil supply coming from the US, Canada and Mexico (and another 1Mbd from our pal Chavez), OPEC could cut us off for 2 years and we'd still be fine.
That's why, when the price of oil spikes because of some rebels doing something in Nigeria - it's just total nonsense.
Oil trusts, meanwhile, are great investments, we play those all the time.
Which Way Wednesday: Popping Or Topping With The $100 Oil Scam? [View article]
So you just make up numbers? Is that the way it works? I notice you clevery don't actually link to a chart nor do you mention that 5.1% of $20 is $1 while 4.7% of $60 is $2.82 so your apples and oranges comparison is the one with a clear agenda, not mine.
Other than the 70s Iran thing and a brief spike in 1990, oil never saw $30, let alone $40 before your boy Bush came into office. As to Obama, the point is the laws need to be changed back to stop the manipulation - Obama hasn't done that yet but to try to fob off the fact that he took office after the Bush Economic Collapse that sent oil back to $30 and use that as some kind of statistic to show Obama somehow caused a 38% spike in oil prices - well, Skookum, let's just say that if you said gravity was still in effect I'd have to check for myself now.
Wednesday Worries: Yentervention, Euro Style [View article]
Wednesday Worries: Yentervention, Euro Style [View article]
Wednesday Worries: Yentervention, Euro Style [View article]
Easy Money Monday: Robbing Peter To Pay Portugal [View article]
One of the best concerts I ever went to was Tull at the Garden and, fortunately, it was made into a DVD: http://bit.ly/vqjqhx
Not coincidental, I suppose as they knew they were making a video, we just knew it was a kick-ass show at the time...
Easy Money Monday: Robbing Peter To Pay Portugal [View article]
As it's still $38 (and the Feb puts are $1.45), we're not at all concerned yet. The DXDs are $1.40 so the relationship is sound (even) and let's not forget it's a hedge, not a bet so we HOPE, on the whole, that the DXDs will expire worthless as do the short puts for, essentially, a no-trade.
Even if we get our $2+ and cash out the DXDs, we still expect to end up not paying the DXD putter but, if they do continue to fall, the Feb $33 puts ($1.45) can be rolled to the May $27 puts (now $1.40) and those, in turn, to the 2013 $18 puts, now $1.30. If you don't REALLY want to own DXD for $18 (52% off) then why the hell would you be selling puts against it in the first place?
Easy Money Monday: Robbing Peter To Pay Portugal [View article]
Easy Money Monday: Robbing Peter To Pay Portugal [View article]
TGIF: Saved By The Bell Or On A Highway To Hell? [View article]
While we talk about our short-term trading, because it's more exciting, we still advocate keeping most of the portfolio in longer-term investments and ignoring the daily, weekly and monthly nonsense in the marktet. Our Income Portfolio had one trade in the past 30 days and has hit it's year goal after 6 months - believe me, THAT's the kind of trading I like to do!
One of the reasons I went into the markets is BECAUSE you aren't supposed to have to work every day. HFT makes that almost impossible because, any time you're not looking - a computer comes along and tries to steal your money!
It's not healthy for the system to the point which it affects companies and discourages them from communicating with the public (less a statement be misinterpreted) and encourages generally bad corporate behavior that focuses only on short-term goals, because investors (especially electronic ones) have no patientce for R&D or capital investments that impact short-term profits.
We were just looking at TEF the other day. It's based in Spain but provides service all over Europe and Latin America. They are trading at $18.74 and pay a $1.69 dividend (9%) and they are projected to be flat at about $2.30 a share for the next couple of years, which gives them a p/e of 8.14 on $86Bn in revenues.
This is the kind of company we lock up into our Long-Term Portfolios because you can buy the stock for $18.74 and sell the June $15 calls for $4.50 and the June $17.50 puts for $2 and that puts you in for a net cost of $12.24 and, if called away at $15 (which is 20% below the current price!), you make $2.76 plus .85 in dividends, which is 29.5% in 8 months.
If the stock finishes below $17.50, another round will be put to you at that price and then you will own 2x at net $14.87 so, of course, you don't make a trade like this unless you REALLY want to own 2x for net $15 but, as I mentioned, that's a 20% discount and, if they continue to pay a $1.70 dividend, owning 2x for $15 is very nice.
See, now that's the kinds of trades we make all the time but, once we make them, there's nothing to talk about. In all likelihood, we get called away in June with a 29% gain and we simply move on to the next opportunity. It's not exciting, but it's how we put the bulk of our allocations to work. The day-trading is to just pass the time while we wait for good opportunities like this one.
Which Way Wednesday: Popping Or Topping With The $100 Oil Scam? [View article]
Both links I used go somehwere when I click them and the 2nd link does have the chart I indicated but low on the page. I'm not sure that saying "Stockcharts-dot-com" really qualifies as providing a link but I'm sure it does in your mind...
So I see you use the logic that, since oil collapsed just as Bush was finally being shown the door, you will ignore the fact that for the other 7 years of his term oil averaged over 100% higher than the price you are using.
I guess I'll accept your logic and credit Obama with a 100% gain in the markets - making him the most economically successful President in history by your logic - so I guess we should make him Emporer for life and continue his reign of uniterrupted prosperity?
Lies, damned lies and statistics, Skookum - Mark Twain had your number 100 years ago...
Which Way Wednesday: Popping Or Topping With The $100 Oil Scam? [View article]
Meanwhile, TBoone is part of the process - he gets his guest spot on CNBC whenever they need to jam up oil prices. Today he actually said "$300-$500 oil prices" if Saudi Arabia has a revolution - as if there is no such thing as unaffordable to consumers who, presumably, will pay $300 to fill up their tank.
Maybe along with hyperinflation that includes major wage increases but, in this environment - completely ridiculous but that's what TBoone and the peak oil crowd are pushing for - a World that is run with the sole purpose of scrounging up enough money to pay the oil men.
Which Way Wednesday: Popping Or Topping With The $100 Oil Scam? [View article]
I don't sleep much and I'm not up every night but when things are excting in the markets, I tend to get out of bed and go check the computer and, since we have Members all around the World, there's always plenty of people on-line to chat with.
Which Way Wednesday: Popping Or Topping With The $100 Oil Scam? [View article]
Burned us but we pressed our bets at $102, of course. At worst, we figure this is a pump job to stick it to drivers at the pump over Thanksgiving but, after that, things should normalize.
Which Way Wednesday: Popping Or Topping With The $100 Oil Scam? [View article]
I won't run but, if elected - I will serve.
Which Way Wednesday: Popping Or Topping With The $100 Oil Scam? [View article]
That's why, when the price of oil spikes because of some rebels doing something in Nigeria - it's just total nonsense.
Oil trusts, meanwhile, are great investments, we play those all the time.
Which Way Wednesday: Popping Or Topping With The $100 Oil Scam? [View article]
Here's the longer-term chart of oil: http://bit.ly/rPWfRj
Here's another: http://bit.ly/t4ajct
Other than the 70s Iran thing and a brief spike in 1990, oil never saw $30, let alone $40 before your boy Bush came into office. As to Obama, the point is the laws need to be changed back to stop the manipulation - Obama hasn't done that yet but to try to fob off the fact that he took office after the Bush Economic Collapse that sent oil back to $30 and use that as some kind of statistic to show Obama somehow caused a 38% spike in oil prices - well, Skookum, let's just say that if you said gravity was still in effect I'd have to check for myself now.