Monday Market Movement – 10 Days of '11 [View article]
Yes, more ships are a factor but keep in mind those are FORECASTS for a glut to come, not a measurement of a current glut that explains away a 50% drop in 6 months (see, I do read the links!).
I would check links to your data, but there isn't one but I do have this one for you to consider as most of the additional shipping of iron and coal has been caused not so much by a demand for more coal (all cargo was up just 6% in 2010 after falling 11% in 2009 so all they are doing is projecting a return to not so far above 2008 levels on the whole with the "record" ) but a demand for iron and coal in China, which is far away from the iron and coal that is being produced and thus has to be loaded on ships, which inflates the shipping data above the actual physical demand for product.
So we have a 7% projected increase in dry shipments of things that are not in short supply leading to a 50% rise in speculative prices and you don't think it's a bubble? Well, you can be happy to know you have a willing counter-party to your bullish bets this year!
Monday Market Movement – 10 Days of '11 [View article]
I would check links to your data, but there isn't one but I do have this one for you to consider as most of the additional shipping of iron and coal has been caused not so much by a demand for more coal (all cargo was up just 6% in 2010 after falling 11% in 2009 so all they are doing is projecting a return to not so far above 2008 levels on the whole with the "record" ) but a demand for iron and coal in China, which is far away from the iron and coal that is being produced and thus has to be loaded on ships, which inflates the shipping data above the actual physical demand for product.
www.thomaswhite.com/ex...
So we have a 7% projected increase in dry shipments of things that are not in short supply leading to a 50% rise in speculative prices and you don't think it's a bubble? Well, you can be happy to know you have a willing counter-party to your bullish bets this year!