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Philip Davis

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  • Wild Weekly Wrap Up: Cash Is King [View article]
    Wow, that was insightful! 8-)

    Thanks, Jim!
    May 3 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wild Weekly Wrap Up: Cash Is King [View article]
    Hmm, not sure how to respond to that as I do have a serious moral issue with all this but it's my "job" to figure out how to make money, no matter what is happening. It's also my job to point out what's really going on in the markets, where I do get to exercise my moral outrage at the system that, yes, I do participate in.

    Do we compare this to a situation where the whole town is looting the Best Buy and I have to decide whether to go inside the store and buy a TV for $500 or stand outside and buy the same TV for $50 from one of the looters? Do I have the right to criticize the looters while benefiting from the looting?

    Or am I simply taking advantage of an obvious catastrophe like the Baltimore Orioles and simply making sensible bets that they are likely to lose, which I can profit from without "hurting" the team and I do still have the right of any fan to criticize the incompetence or am I not allowed to because I bet against them?

    Governments are like that too. Can you criticize Obama while earning a living in America? Can you want the system to change from the inside while still playing by the current system's rule or do you make a more effective statement by refusing to participate and attempting to tear it down from without?

    I don't think you have to "agree" with the bulls in order to bet that the bull will run towards red but I certainly see your point but I think it would be a lot more fake to pretend I agreed with bullish investors, just because we know how to take advantage of their trading patterns...

    Great topic for debate!
    May 3 10:27 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook [View article]
    That is very impresssive stuff Jack but I get stuck at how you're getting from FSLR's current use of 3 tonnes of tellurium last year (which was 10% of global production) to having free access to 300 tonnes. I have seen nothing to indicate production levels likely over 350 tonnes no matter what the price as the extraction of Te depends on someone first wanting copper.

    If you have links I'd be happy to take a look at that IS the crux of my bearish long-term outlook on FSLR (although the fact that their contracts lower prices 20% per year and that Germany may be topping off their own solar rebates are coming in a close second and third now).

    My assumption is that even if Te production does somehow increase to 350 MT a year and FSLR grabs 1/4 of it, that's ony enough for perhaps 1 GW at that point. Also - wouldn't it be awful if some other solar company decided to use Te, since it's so fantastic?

    May 16 09:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook [View article]
    I stand corrected re. the Yuan, it did not occur to me that it wasn't in dollars so that's just the 3,000% increase in price then correct? I'll make sure we fix that fact.


    We did short FSLR out of the box, both on the leap I recommended and, ultimately, we took the $320 puts during or morning session (we do live trading on the member site) so we're pretty pleased so far. Today we grabbed the $310 puts for a nice morning double and we'll short them again if they go up again but the leap stays naked, looking for a double over time.

    Mark - that ad is a classic! Maybe I should apply and hook them up with Jack Satan, he seems to have some tellurium to unload. I really don't understand why it upsets people to point out a problem with an investment. Yes, I was wrong about the amount per Kg and I will say so but that doesn't change the fact that there is not enough tellurium on the planet earth for this company to fulfill their business model - the one that people are investing in.

    Thanks for the forum link Energy!

    ISRG was cheap at $300 (it went to $350) and we bought it again at $280 last month and it's still cheap at $290 but thanks for being a long-time reader global!

    May 15 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook [View article]
    If you have other data and can post links I'd be happy to take a look at it.
    May 14 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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