Fall-Down Friday - JPMorgan's Face Plant Might Give Us A Bottom [View article]
Matt's (our programmer) note on access issue from this morning:
After some dialogue with webair, it seems that they had one of their providers giving them trouble this morning. It would only have affected people with certain ISP's, which seems to have been the case with us. They have re-routed traffic so hopefully it shouldn't be a problem any more. Let me know if people keep complaining.
Please let us know if anyone is still having trouble but that should clean it up. Thanks.
Will We Hold It Wednesday: S&P 1,360 Edition [View article]
We're bullish at the moment.
Yesterday's post never got submitted as I was in Vegas and having a busy day. Of course it was up at http://bit.ly/uOBG0H - along with many other fine posts from our great contributors!
In fact, if you ever want to check out what non-SA authors have to say, Phil's Favorites is a free section of our site where we try to pick the people who are making the most sense each day.
Technical Tuesday: Holding The Line On Light Volume [View article]
I did miss that not and it does make a big difference. Good catch.
Markets off like a rocket this morning led us to cash out some of our longs (see yesterday's post) and roll our short positions out to June because another couple of days like this and there won't be any coming back for the bear bets.
All in all, we tilted more bearish into this spike up, maybe 60/40 now but we're looking to add more to our 10 bull plays (see yesterday's post again) along the same plan - one more for each day over the line.
It was after the March crash, we began charting our expectations for the recovery (50% was our initial goal - S&P 1,200).
Here's a review I did a year after the crash - we went gung-ho bullish on Friday March 6th, 2009, when I called the bottom on TV and laid out 13 bullish trade ideas to take advantage of the panic (they went well).
Lines/Auto - We didn't use them until after the crash - then we drew up what we expected in the recovery. Been using the same system since then and it works pretty well. We have "must hold" levels and breakout levels and, when our breakout levels firm up as bottoms - they become the new must hold lines. Many, many detailed articles and discussions about using the 5% Rule in Member chat.
See Friday's post - what are our lines? Must Hold on the Dow is 13,600 and 5% line is 14,400 - where are we today? 2.5% line is 13,200. Same spot on S&P, right between our 1,360 must hold and 1,440 5% line. Nas 3,046 closer to testing the Must Hold at 3,000 as are the RUT and NYSE on their lines. Failing 3 of 5 of those Must Holds is bearish!
Thank GDP It's Friday: Reality Check? [View article]
My note to Members on the currency action this afternoon:
78.73! Yen down to 80.39 and EUR/CHF still $1.201. It's amazing. All a fund has to do is keep dumping Francs, which is not very expensive as they already told you they'd support $1.20 so you can sell them in bulk and won't lose more than a penny. That then keep the SNB buying Euros – which no single fund could afford to support on their own and the Euros cause the Dollar to fall and that's how you can lose maybe $10M dumping $1Bn worth of Swiss Francs and cause the World's 2nd largest currency to move up 1% in a day while the World's largest currency drops 1% where either move can turn another Billion into $1.2Bn easy.
Switzerland sparked fears of a new currency war on Tuesday after it pegged the Swiss franc against the euro in an attempt to protect its economy from the European debt crisis.
The Swiss National Bank in effect devalued the franc, pledging to buy "unlimited quantities" of foreign currencies to force down its value. The SNB warned that it would no longer allow one Swiss franc to be worth more than €0.83 – equivalent to SFr1.20 to the euro – having watched the two currencies move closer to parity as Switzerland became a "safe haven" from the ravages of the eurozone crisis.
Federally Fueled Thursday: QE Maybe? [View article]
Yes, you are right - much better to stick to a position no matter what happens. I'm sure that strategy serves you well.
Seriously though, do you actually play the market with all your bets in one direction? That must be so frustrating.... Even my 10-year old daughter was making bullish bets yesterday as we broke over 3 of 5 of our watch levels!
We've been posting the levels at which we would flip bullish since the 16th and the markets finally hit them yesterday and we flipped bullish - that was the plan. Fundamentally, this changes nothing as this is total market lunacy but that just means we're taking momentum trades on the Bull side that allow us to make quick exits and we establish highly leveraged downside hedges that use little money but make great pay-offs on a 5% or 10% dip in the indexes.
So, at this point - PLEASE keep being a fool, we get cheaper entries on our short positions and we are MORE than happy to take your money on the momentum trades!
yodi (premium) April 26th, 2012 at 9:52 am
Phil XLF on two vertical plays set up in Nov 11 11/15 Jan13 and 10/13 jan13 doing very well I hold the Jan 10p sold for 1.28 now .20 and the Jan 13 12p sold for 1.89 now .40 thinking of rolling these to Jan14 12p what you think
Phil April 26th, 2012 at 9:52 am.
Jackie (10) says there's a lot of movement but we should wait until there's a clear signal on "take your daughter to work day." She will be here all day to answer questions and she's putting together a special report on natural gas in China, which she decided was the most important headline of the day.
Dollar's at 79.08 and if they can push us back below 79, that's going to be bullish. Euro just held $1.32 but the Pound failed $1.62 so we'll try to get consensus over there.
PCLN continues to go nuts and there is a lot of buying coming in now (9:39), mostly in the Nas.
Not sure what it all means, news isn't even exciting – I guess Bernanke bounce will work until it doesn't. Oil usually gives up ground after the nat gas report at 10:30 so we'll wait and see there.
Phil April 26th, 2012 at 10:04 am
Jackie says maybe a couple of days before a big sell-off based on MACD and RSI on the major indexes. That means that this may be a blow-off top. We're at about the same place we were yesterday morning so no change yet – we'll see how it plays out into the KC Fed at 11 (and a big 7-year auction at 1) – the housing data is a good excuse to test highs.
Pending home sales way up in west and south, down in North and mid-west but, overall, a strong report.
Phil April 26th, 2012 at 10:54 am
FAS/Burr – Yes, it's a good set-up as is. We're just there to sell lots of premium, when it's high we sell more calls, when it's low we sell more puts. Having the 2014 $13s means we're long-term bullish and we have a reasonable expectation of the Jan $15s burning off that $1.40 and leaving you with a net $1.72 entry and THEN you can sell a 2014 call and have your almost free vertical.
XLF/Yodi – I like that idea. Those puts are pretty dead and we're fairly confident XLF will hold $13.50 long-term but you may need to gut out a dip or two along the way.
Oil went the wrong way after nat gas – back to testing $105 and yes I think it's a good short (/CL) off that line. Dollar shot down to 78.87, now back to 79.98. Euro $1.3235, Pound $1.6193 – still not closing the deal on $1.62.
Copper took back $3.75, $3.85 is bullish for them and the Global Economy. Nat gas $2.23, gasoline $3.12.
morxlntway (premium) April 26th, 2012 at 11:37 am
Phil – my TNA may 56/61 is showing a bit of a profit! Glad i did nothing (at the moment)
Phil April 26th, 2012 at 12:04 pm
DOMK/Savi – My question would be whether or not a trickle charge is good for an IPad battery or if it might deplete the life-cycle. My red flags are they have no money and $1.2M in debt All of their news comes from Businesswire (do it yourself PR) and no tech mags have reviewed the product yet. Given the trending buzz they are generating – I think you can buy a few shares and catch a nice pop and get out but it's very possible this stock really is a penny stock so I'd set a stop at $1.25 and not delude yourself into thinking this is some kind of investment.
Savi (premium) April 26th, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Phil—Thanks on DOMK—took a small position at 1.14 this morning and out at 1.46 (28% profit!)
sagemm1 (basic) April 26th, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Phil,
I know only play what you can pay but as a former pit trader in Chicago, it is extremely difficult, even more than futures were, to remain with conviction when you KNOW you are right (and I am LT bullish) and yes I know the market can remain irrational longer than I can stay solvent boy oh boy it is true now more than ever!
I think the Bernanke gives his thoughts to the TBTF banks before he ignores conditions and says well I have a bazooka here and I am willing to use it!
hemas03 (basic) April 26th, 2012 at 2:08 pm
This just filled:
SQQQ May $11/12 bull call spread at .30 – 10 in the $5KP, 30 in $25KP. In $25KP, add sale of 10 $11 puts at .45 to offset.
lflantheman (premium) April 26th, 2012 at 2:20 pm
O.K. strictly for fun, I have purchase one (1) May 4 PCLN 725 call for 18.60. I hope to sell a 730 against it later in the day to convert to a spread. Again, just messing around a bit in order to get a feel for this puppy.
stjeanluc (premium) April 26th, 2012 at 2:22 pm
PCLN / lflan – On the other hand, if you look at my daily volatility spreadsheet, you can see that PCLN has moved an average of $8 every day over the last 50 days! Up or down. If you can pick the right direction, the spread won't matter as much.
Phil April 26th, 2012 at 2:55 pm
AMZN/Gucci – Well it's very risky into earnings, of course. I think AMZN should do OK and the market is on fire.
Dow volume 62M at 2:30 – About normal for a slow day.
S&P 1,400 – That's friggin' unreal. Nas 3,050 makes it an official party.
VXX/Cjji – It can go much lower if we're back into one of those things were we just go up every day again. The S&P is now up 3% since Monday – that's going to crush the hell out of the VIX and now we're into a short squeeze (I know we're feeling it now!) and Asia still needs to catch up in the Morning, which might get Europe to keep going up and then we'll open high again tomorrow with an even lower VIX and THEN I'll be interested in going long at 15.
Sense/Sage – You have to have bets on both sides or the market will chew you up. The trick is to use the profits from the side you are "wrong" on to fund the rolls of the side you are waiting to be right on. I still think this move is a blow-off top but the whole point of a blow-off top is to force capitulation and we're starting to hear a little of that but I cannot emphasize enough how important it is to have bullish plays as well to balance out.
Much as it pains me we do need some more bullish picks. At the moment, the RUT is the laggard (5% behind the leading Nas in the last month) so the bullish way to go would be a TNA May $57/62 bull call spread for $2.70, selling the CHK June $17 puts for $1.25 for net $1.45 on the $5 spread.
msf65 (basic) April 26th, 2012 at 3:24 pm
I have SQQQ June $10/$14 BCS bought at $1.11 (now $0.90) with $10 P sold at $0.80 (now $0.40) - up net 60%. Thanks
dpastramas (basic) April 26th, 2012 at 3:26 pm
VXX / Phil – I was still hoping for any reversal in may but i see you are already giving up. In any case your suggested trade makes whole lot of sense, i can benefit from an additional short call to cap the long 17.
My personal "handicap" is that i am very short term focused, i try to save the trade in the course of the month. Need to take advantage of the long term as well. Cheers
Phil April 26th, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Nat gas is down at $2.12 from $2.30 this morning. Gasoline $3.13, getting stronger into the weekend, as usual. Oil is $104.50 and copper has been going up and up ($3.79), which is great for the FCX longs we got a while ago. So, on the whole, we have mixed indications of economic health and tomorrow we get our first look at Q1 GDP, which is estimated at 2.9% but now I wonder if 2.5% will rally us as it puts the Fed back on the table? Last reading was 3% but if we go down like Europe did – 2.5% is about right.
GDP/Danny – See above. I think a miss between 2.5 and 2.9% and now I'm worried that the news will be bad enough to be good in this ridiculous market.
VXX/Dpast – Not so much giving up as making a strategic retreat in the face of an overwhelming enemy. In the strategy section there's an article on rolling and scaling where we discuss Sun Tzu and his tactics as they relate to adjusting positions.
That oil trade alone was good for a quick $1,000 per contract. Also, I commented above about Jackie's pick on SHI but what I didn't mention then was she made that pick at 11:07 and, if you look at SHI's intra-day chart, you'll see a nice little spike on her report - my daughter is a market mover!
That SQQQ spread in both of our small virtual portfolios is one of those highly leveraged trade ideas we like to have on the bear side, risking $900 to make $3,000 if SQQQ holds $11 for 3 weeks. If it doesn't - then our bull plays will be working. That's how you hedge!
Federally Fueled Thursday: QE Maybe? [View article]
Thanks! I tossed the FT at here this morning and asked her to summarize what she thought was the most important article of the day and that's what she picked. Not a bad report for a 4th grader!
One of our Members asked her what other stocks she liked and this was her response (I only helped her identify the symbols):
"Hi nicha! other stocks i like are AAPL, DIS. ASNA who owns Justice my favorite clothing store. WOLF is great but they already went up a lot. Just recently I heard about Facebook buying Instagram for $1 billion dollars and Facebook is starting a stock soon. MCD went down a little but i belive they will start going to the highs again. CNK is a very good stock with the new Marvel Avengers Movie Marathon a one day thing leading up to the premire of the Avengers. That's all I have to say for now I hope you enjoyed!"
She's from the Buffett school of investing in companies you know about...
As to 1:20 - you can see the Dow, S&P etc take off around 1 actually and it was the auction, which was a record low 1.347% for $29Bn (a lot) of 7-year notes. A very strong auction despite the weak Dollar was key but, to us, all it really indicates is market panic as people would rather lose part of $29Bn to inflation than risk putting it in the stock market or better-paying bonds.
Still, we hit our technicals today and had to make some bullish bets - hopefully they'll be short-lived as we're still a bit more bearish. You would think the S&P downgrade of Spain would slap the market back to reality but who knows.
Earlier in the morning, Jackie said maybe a couple of days before the big sell-off based on MACD and RSI on the major indexes, which means today could have been a blow-off top
Federally Fueled Thursday: QE Maybe? [View article]
Special Report from Jackie on take your daughter to work day:
Hi, this is Jackie and I would like to talk about China and shale gas. China is the world's biggest energy user and the people of China are hoping that they can use their shale like we do to make their gas less expensive. Policy planners in Beijing belive shale gas could be part of the awnser to the growing need of imported gas in China.
Apparently getting shale gas out of the ground has proved challenging so Chinses energy executives say it will take years before China's shale resorces are developed on a large scale.
“The geology in China is very very complex,” said Chris Faulkner, chief executive of Breitling Oil and Gas, a US shale gas company that is exploring business opportunities in China. “There’s no procedure in the US that we can just lug over here and apply to this geology and expect to have the same results as the US.”
China says they will get 60bn cubic meters yearly by 2020. Thats actually a lot because a cubic meter is about 27 cubic feet, so 60bn cubic meters 1.6 trillion cubic feet. China has 25tn cubic meters, wich is 675tn cubic feet- enough to supply the countrys gas needs for nearly 200 years at current levels.
SHI is exploring the most for shale gas. Their chart is low but they might be a good invesment for the future.
Technical Tuesday: 1,360 Or Bust On The S&P - Again [View article]
Fall-Down Friday - JPMorgan's Face Plant Might Give Us A Bottom [View article]
After some dialogue with webair, it seems that they had one of their providers giving them trouble this morning. It would only have affected people with certain ISP's, which seems to have been the case with us. They have re-routed traffic so hopefully it shouldn't be a problem any more. Let me know if people keep complaining.
Please let us know if anyone is still having trouble but that should clean it up. Thanks.
Fall-Down Friday - JPMorgan's Face Plant Might Give Us A Bottom [View article]
Fall-Down Friday - JPMorgan's Face Plant Might Give Us A Bottom [View article]
Fall-Down Friday - JPMorgan's Face Plant Might Give Us A Bottom [View article]
Will We Hold It Wednesday: S&P 1,360 Edition [View article]
Yesterday's post never got submitted as I was in Vegas and having a busy day. Of course it was up at http://bit.ly/uOBG0H - along with many other fine posts from our great contributors!
In fact, if you ever want to check out what non-SA authors have to say, Phil's Favorites is a free section of our site where we try to pick the people who are making the most sense each day.
http://bit.ly/LevzxN
8-)
Technical Tuesday: Holding The Line On Light Volume [View article]
Markets off like a rocket this morning led us to cash out some of our longs (see yesterday's post) and roll our short positions out to June because another couple of days like this and there won't be any coming back for the bear bets.
All in all, we tilted more bearish into this spike up, maybe 60/40 now but we're looking to add more to our 10 bull plays (see yesterday's post again) along the same plan - one more for each day over the line.
Money, Power And Wall Street [View article]
Here's a review I did a year after the crash - we went gung-ho bullish on Friday March 6th, 2009, when I called the bottom on TV and laid out 13 bullish trade ideas to take advantage of the panic (they went well).
http://bit.ly/R9OFn
Money, Power And Wall Street [View article]
See Friday's post - what are our lines? Must Hold on the Dow is 13,600 and 5% line is 14,400 - where are we today? 2.5% line is 13,200. Same spot on S&P, right between our 1,360 must hold and 1,440 5% line. Nas 3,046 closer to testing the Must Hold at 3,000 as are the RUT and NYSE on their lines. Failing 3 of 5 of those Must Holds is bearish!
Thank GDP It's Friday: Reality Check? [View article]
78.73! Yen down to 80.39 and EUR/CHF still $1.201. It's amazing. All a fund has to do is keep dumping Francs, which is not very expensive as they already told you they'd support $1.20 so you can sell them in bulk and won't lose more than a penny. That then keep the SNB buying Euros – which no single fund could afford to support on their own and the Euros cause the Dollar to fall and that's how you can lose maybe $10M dumping $1Bn worth of Swiss Francs and cause the World's 2nd largest currency to move up 1% in a day while the World's largest currency drops 1% where either move can turn another Billion into $1.2Bn easy.
Thank GDP It's Friday: Reality Check? [View article]
http://bit.ly/IhifLx
Switzerland sparked fears of a new currency war on Tuesday after it pegged the Swiss franc against the euro in an attempt to protect its economy from the European debt crisis.
The Swiss National Bank in effect devalued the franc, pledging to buy "unlimited quantities" of foreign currencies to force down its value. The SNB warned that it would no longer allow one Swiss franc to be worth more than €0.83 – equivalent to SFr1.20 to the euro – having watched the two currencies move closer to parity as Switzerland became a "safe haven" from the ravages of the eurozone crisis.
Federally Fueled Thursday: QE Maybe? [View article]
Seriously though, do you actually play the market with all your bets in one direction? That must be so frustrating.... Even my 10-year old daughter was making bullish bets yesterday as we broke over 3 of 5 of our watch levels!
We've been posting the levels at which we would flip bullish since the 16th and the markets finally hit them yesterday and we flipped bullish - that was the plan. Fundamentally, this changes nothing as this is total market lunacy but that just means we're taking momentum trades on the Bull side that allow us to make quick exits and we establish highly leveraged downside hedges that use little money but make great pay-offs on a 5% or 10% dip in the indexes.
So, at this point - PLEASE keep being a fool, we get cheaper entries on our short positions and we are MORE than happy to take your money on the momentum trades!
yodi (premium) April 26th, 2012 at 9:52 am
Phil XLF on two vertical plays set up in Nov 11 11/15 Jan13 and 10/13 jan13 doing very well I hold the Jan 10p sold for 1.28 now .20 and the Jan 13 12p sold for 1.89 now .40 thinking of rolling these to Jan14 12p what you think
Phil April 26th, 2012 at 9:52 am.
Jackie (10) says there's a lot of movement but we should wait until there's a clear signal on "take your daughter to work day." She will be here all day to answer questions and she's putting together a special report on natural gas in China, which she decided was the most important headline of the day.
Dollar's at 79.08 and if they can push us back below 79, that's going to be bullish. Euro just held $1.32 but the Pound failed $1.62 so we'll try to get consensus over there.
PCLN continues to go nuts and there is a lot of buying coming in now (9:39), mostly in the Nas.
Not sure what it all means, news isn't even exciting – I guess Bernanke bounce will work until it doesn't. Oil usually gives up ground after the nat gas report at 10:30 so we'll wait and see there.
Phil April 26th, 2012 at 10:04 am
Jackie says maybe a couple of days before a big sell-off based on MACD and RSI on the major indexes. That means that this may be a blow-off top. We're at about the same place we were yesterday morning so no change yet – we'll see how it plays out into the KC Fed at 11 (and a big 7-year auction at 1) – the housing data is a good excuse to test highs.
Pending home sales way up in west and south, down in North and mid-west but, overall, a strong report.
Phil April 26th, 2012 at 10:54 am
FAS/Burr – Yes, it's a good set-up as is. We're just there to sell lots of premium, when it's high we sell more calls, when it's low we sell more puts. Having the 2014 $13s means we're long-term bullish and we have a reasonable expectation of the Jan $15s burning off that $1.40 and leaving you with a net $1.72 entry and THEN you can sell a 2014 call and have your almost free vertical.
XLF/Yodi – I like that idea. Those puts are pretty dead and we're fairly confident XLF will hold $13.50 long-term but you may need to gut out a dip or two along the way.
Oil went the wrong way after nat gas – back to testing $105 and yes I think it's a good short (/CL) off that line. Dollar shot down to 78.87, now back to 79.98. Euro $1.3235, Pound $1.6193 – still not closing the deal on $1.62.
Copper took back $3.75, $3.85 is bullish for them and the Global Economy. Nat gas $2.23, gasoline $3.12.
morxlntway (premium) April 26th, 2012 at 11:37 am
Phil – my TNA may 56/61 is showing a bit of a profit! Glad i did nothing (at the moment)
Phil April 26th, 2012 at 12:04 pm
DOMK/Savi – My question would be whether or not a trickle charge is good for an IPad battery or if it might deplete the life-cycle. My red flags are they have no money and $1.2M in debt All of their news comes from Businesswire (do it yourself PR) and no tech mags have reviewed the product yet. Given the trending buzz they are generating – I think you can buy a few shares and catch a nice pop and get out but it's very possible this stock really is a penny stock so I'd set a stop at $1.25 and not delude yourself into thinking this is some kind of investment.
Savi (premium) April 26th, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Phil—Thanks on DOMK—took a small position at 1.14 this morning and out at 1.46 (28% profit!)
sagemm1 (basic) April 26th, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Phil,
I know only play what you can pay but as a former pit trader in Chicago, it is extremely difficult, even more than futures were, to remain with conviction when you KNOW you are right (and I am LT bullish) and yes I know the market can remain irrational longer than I can stay solvent boy oh boy it is true now more than ever!
I think the Bernanke gives his thoughts to the TBTF banks before he ignores conditions and says well I have a bazooka here and I am willing to use it!
hemas03 (basic) April 26th, 2012 at 2:08 pm
This just filled:
SQQQ May $11/12 bull call spread at .30 – 10 in the $5KP, 30 in $25KP. In $25KP, add sale of 10 $11 puts at .45 to offset.
lflantheman (premium) April 26th, 2012 at 2:20 pm
O.K. strictly for fun, I have purchase one (1) May 4 PCLN 725 call for 18.60. I hope to sell a 730 against it later in the day to convert to a spread. Again, just messing around a bit in order to get a feel for this puppy.
stjeanluc (premium) April 26th, 2012 at 2:22 pm
PCLN / lflan – On the other hand, if you look at my daily volatility spreadsheet, you can see that PCLN has moved an average of $8 every day over the last 50 days! Up or down. If you can pick the right direction, the spread won't matter as much.
Phil April 26th, 2012 at 2:55 pm
AMZN/Gucci – Well it's very risky into earnings, of course. I think AMZN should do OK and the market is on fire.
Dow volume 62M at 2:30 – About normal for a slow day.
S&P 1,400 – That's friggin' unreal. Nas 3,050 makes it an official party.
VXX/Cjji – It can go much lower if we're back into one of those things were we just go up every day again. The S&P is now up 3% since Monday – that's going to crush the hell out of the VIX and now we're into a short squeeze (I know we're feeling it now!) and Asia still needs to catch up in the Morning, which might get Europe to keep going up and then we'll open high again tomorrow with an even lower VIX and THEN I'll be interested in going long at 15.
Sense/Sage – You have to have bets on both sides or the market will chew you up. The trick is to use the profits from the side you are "wrong" on to fund the rolls of the side you are waiting to be right on. I still think this move is a blow-off top but the whole point of a blow-off top is to force capitulation and we're starting to hear a little of that but I cannot emphasize enough how important it is to have bullish plays as well to balance out.
Much as it pains me we do need some more bullish picks. At the moment, the RUT is the laggard (5% behind the leading Nas in the last month) so the bullish way to go would be a TNA May $57/62 bull call spread for $2.70, selling the CHK June $17 puts for $1.25 for net $1.45 on the $5 spread.
msf65 (basic) April 26th, 2012 at 3:24 pm
I have SQQQ June $10/$14 BCS bought at $1.11 (now $0.90) with $10 P sold at $0.80 (now $0.40) - up net 60%. Thanks
dpastramas (basic) April 26th, 2012 at 3:26 pm
VXX / Phil – I was still hoping for any reversal in may but i see you are already giving up. In any case your suggested trade makes whole lot of sense, i can benefit from an additional short call to cap the long 17.
My personal "handicap" is that i am very short term focused, i try to save the trade in the course of the month. Need to take advantage of the long term as well. Cheers
Phil April 26th, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Nat gas is down at $2.12 from $2.30 this morning. Gasoline $3.13, getting stronger into the weekend, as usual. Oil is $104.50 and copper has been going up and up ($3.79), which is great for the FCX longs we got a while ago. So, on the whole, we have mixed indications of economic health and tomorrow we get our first look at Q1 GDP, which is estimated at 2.9% but now I wonder if 2.5% will rally us as it puts the Fed back on the table? Last reading was 3% but if we go down like Europe did – 2.5% is about right.
GDP/Danny – See above. I think a miss between 2.5 and 2.9% and now I'm worried that the news will be bad enough to be good in this ridiculous market.
VXX/Dpast – Not so much giving up as making a strategic retreat in the face of an overwhelming enemy. In the strategy section there's an article on rolling and scaling where we discuss Sun Tzu and his tactics as they relate to adjusting positions.
That oil trade alone was good for a quick $1,000 per contract. Also, I commented above about Jackie's pick on SHI but what I didn't mention then was she made that pick at 11:07 and, if you look at SHI's intra-day chart, you'll see a nice little spike on her report - my daughter is a market mover!
That SQQQ spread in both of our small virtual portfolios is one of those highly leveraged trade ideas we like to have on the bear side, risking $900 to make $3,000 if SQQQ holds $11 for 3 weeks. If it doesn't - then our bull plays will be working. That's how you hedge!
Federally Fueled Thursday: QE Maybe? [View article]
One of our Members asked her what other stocks she liked and this was her response (I only helped her identify the symbols):
"Hi nicha! other stocks i like are AAPL, DIS. ASNA who owns Justice my favorite clothing store. WOLF is great but they already went up a lot. Just recently I heard about Facebook buying Instagram for $1 billion dollars and Facebook is starting a stock soon. MCD went down a little but i belive they will start going to the highs again. CNK is a very good stock with the new Marvel Avengers Movie Marathon a one day thing leading up to the premire of the Avengers. That's all I have to say for now I hope you enjoyed!"
She's from the Buffett school of investing in companies you know about...
As to 1:20 - you can see the Dow, S&P etc take off around 1 actually and it was the auction, which was a record low 1.347% for $29Bn (a lot) of 7-year notes. A very strong auction despite the weak Dollar was key but, to us, all it really indicates is market panic as people would rather lose part of $29Bn to inflation than risk putting it in the stock market or better-paying bonds.
Still, we hit our technicals today and had to make some bullish bets - hopefully they'll be short-lived as we're still a bit more bearish. You would think the S&P downgrade of Spain would slap the market back to reality but who knows.
Earlier in the morning, Jackie said maybe a couple of days before the big sell-off based on MACD and RSI on the major indexes, which means today could have been a blow-off top
Federally Fueled Thursday: QE Maybe? [View article]
Federally Fueled Thursday: QE Maybe? [View article]
Hi, this is Jackie and I would like to talk about China and shale gas. China is the world's biggest energy user and the people of China are hoping that they can use their shale like we do to make their gas less expensive. Policy planners in Beijing belive shale gas could be part of the awnser to the growing need of imported gas in China.
Apparently getting shale gas out of the ground has proved challenging so Chinses energy executives say it will take years before China's shale resorces are developed on a large scale.
“The geology in China is very very complex,” said Chris Faulkner, chief executive of Breitling Oil and Gas, a US shale gas company that is exploring business opportunities in China. “There’s no procedure in the US that we can just lug over here and apply to this geology and expect to have the same results as the US.”
China says they will get 60bn cubic meters yearly by 2020. Thats actually a lot because a cubic meter is about 27 cubic feet, so 60bn cubic meters 1.6 trillion cubic feet. China has 25tn cubic meters, wich is 675tn cubic feet- enough to supply the countrys gas needs for nearly 200 years at current levels.
SHI is exploring the most for shale gas. Their chart is low but they might be a good invesment for the future.