Monday Market Meltdown: All Fall Down [View article]
Actually we're really bearish but playing for a bounce at the moment. If the bounce doesn't come, we're technically bearish too. The market dropped to the point where we expect intervention from the Central Banksters so it's now dangerous to play bearish since intervention is more likely than not.
I don't think we're confused, I think it's our policy makers that are confused as well as people like JPM, who are making massive bets on the wrong side of the market.
I have said for a very long time, the entirety of the bull case is the expectation of more stimulus/QE. This is not a premise on which to build a lasting rally. We need jobs - until we build jobs - there will be no lasting turnaround in the broader economy so we will continue to be skeptical of any rally that merely celebrates another cash dump on the top 1% that piles up more debts on the bottom 99% to "fix" things.
Monday Market Meltdown: All Fall Down [View article]
We lost interest in shorting USO and Gas (although generally we play gas bullish on Friday morning and out by 2:30) and, in fact, adjusted a long-term play to slightly bullish - in that we don't expect oil to fail $80.
Our tendency is to short things that are overpriced and go long on things that are underpriced. In the middle - we'd rather just wait. With oil, the range is roughly $85-$105 where we like to play it so $95 is the worst possible price for guessing but we figure $92.50 is likely to hold on this sell-off.
Monday Market Meltdown: All Fall Down [View article]
We're playing this to be a possible bottom until it breaks but we have some very aggressive downside hedges to cover our early bottom-fishing and, of course, we're playing with house money as we were very bearish at the top and are sitting on huge gains.
It would not be very surprising to see another 10% drop if Europe blows up but, as I mentioned above, we can sell puts against JPM, CHK, WFR, HOV - that give us 30% cushions so we're happy to dip our toes in here but we haven't gotten stopped out of our Long Put List either.
Tempting Tuesday: Baa, Baa To The Sheeple [View article]
If you look top left you'll see 1,707 published articles in date order that you can review.
If I had to guess, I'd say there must be at least 3,000 specific trade ideas - certainly a pretty good sample over the years.
We make plenty of bad bets but we generally work them out - it's one of the skills we teach people. The real "trick" is not to play all bull or all bear - we trade a range and, at the bottom of a range we get more bullish and, at the top of a range, we get more bearish and then we try to cash out our positions when they are ahead.
Tempting Tuesday: Baa, Baa To The Sheeple [View article]
It's all about earnings. We think down to $390 is about right but we're not playing the week more long-term bearish to be safe - in case they pop 10% the other way.
Thursday Flip-Flop: Now Goldman Sachs Says S&P 1,250 Is Target [View article]
Sorry about your lack of reading comprehension Tradeflow but I think we pretty clearly outlined our technically bullish but Fundamentally bearish attitude on 2/24: http://bit.ly/I9unvz
2008 was similar - as the S&P fell below 800, we began buying. Just because it went lower still doesn't mean it was a poor decision - with the S&P back at 1,400 - even you must understand that.
Thursday Flip-Flop: Now Goldman Sachs Says S&P 1,250 Is Target [View article]
Ouch indeed!
Of course, we play PCLN (ouch again) and CMG with rolling puts so, at this early stage, we actually WANT them to go higher as we're nowhere near a full position, nor are we at a strike we're happy with.
Since then, we've spent another $2 to roll up to the $560 puts but this is still our 1x round out of 4x so we haven't even gotten to the point where we double down yet.
Possibly overdone already. Our target was $55 and our premise was SBUX would screw them over so market just catching up to what we saw $50 ago. We like to play things short on top of a big run, not after they correct so we're out of our GMCR's already. If they go back to $70, we'll get interested again but too many fish in the sea and all that...
We're hunting CMG at the moment. It may take a while but we have a system for playing shorts that let's us be 40% wrong while we wait and I REALLY don't see CMG burning us at $560 so it's a good time for us to start.
Fall Back Friday: Greece Not Yet Fixed [View article]
Here's a video on the Reichstag Fire and other false flag examples you can wrap yourself in next time you need to make a point that makes no sense - it gets a little crazy with the conspiracy theories, but I figure you'll love the part where it blames Clinton.
Fall Back Friday: Greece Not Yet Fixed [View article]
You are right Incendo, I typed "How many people in the US without health care" into Google and, in 0.19 seconds, I was able to find out it as 50.7M, not 43M you absolute tool (I'm sorry, did I type that out loud?).
I assumed that was a well-known concrete fact so I myself didn't bother to check and used a far too conservative number apparently.
Then you go to Reichstag fire - WOW! I think I would pay to sit in on an analysis session with you. It would be fascinating to see those wheels spinning as we learn about all the things you associate in there...
Unfortunately, you didn't actually use it correctly as the Reichstag fire was set by the Nazis to blame the Communists falsely for a plot against the German Government so they could arrest their enemies and trample the constitution.
Thank goodness we could never even imagine a modern parrallel to that, where an administration that recently took power uses a real or faked event as an excuse to suspend civil liberties and roll their military ambitions across the globe on essentially false pretenses while branding anyone who disagrees with them a traitor or, in the succinct words of a great modern leader - "you are either with us, or you are with the terrorists."
Monday Market Meltdown: All Fall Down [View article]
I don't think we're confused, I think it's our policy makers that are confused as well as people like JPM, who are making massive bets on the wrong side of the market.
I have said for a very long time, the entirety of the bull case is the expectation of more stimulus/QE. This is not a premise on which to build a lasting rally. We need jobs - until we build jobs - there will be no lasting turnaround in the broader economy so we will continue to be skeptical of any rally that merely celebrates another cash dump on the top 1% that piles up more debts on the bottom 99% to "fix" things.
Monday Market Meltdown: All Fall Down [View article]
Our tendency is to short things that are overpriced and go long on things that are underpriced. In the middle - we'd rather just wait. With oil, the range is roughly $85-$105 where we like to play it so $95 is the worst possible price for guessing but we figure $92.50 is likely to hold on this sell-off.
Monday Market Meltdown: All Fall Down [View article]
It would not be very surprising to see another 10% drop if Europe blows up but, as I mentioned above, we can sell puts against JPM, CHK, WFR, HOV - that give us 30% cushions so we're happy to dip our toes in here but we haven't gotten stopped out of our Long Put List either.
Monday Market Meltdown: Global Wheeee Edition [View article]
Tempting Tuesday: Baa, Baa To The Sheeple [View article]
If I had to guess, I'd say there must be at least 3,000 specific trade ideas - certainly a pretty good sample over the years.
We make plenty of bad bets but we generally work them out - it's one of the skills we teach people. The real "trick" is not to play all bull or all bear - we trade a range and, at the bottom of a range we get more bullish and, at the top of a range, we get more bearish and then we try to cash out our positions when they are ahead.
I know it's a radical concept.
Tempting Tuesday: Baa, Baa To The Sheeple [View article]
Monday Market Movement: Down For A Change [View article]
Wrapping Up A Great Week (For The Bears) [View article]
Thursday Flip-Flop: Now Goldman Sachs Says S&P 1,250 Is Target [View article]
2008 was similar - as the S&P fell below 800, we began buying. Just because it went lower still doesn't mean it was a poor decision - with the S&P back at 1,400 - even you must understand that.
Thursday Flip-Flop: Now Goldman Sachs Says S&P 1,250 Is Target [View article]
Thursday Flip-Flop: Now Goldman Sachs Says S&P 1,250 Is Target [View article]
Of course, we play PCLN (ouch again) and CMG with rolling puts so, at this early stage, we actually WANT them to go higher as we're nowhere near a full position, nor are we at a strike we're happy with.
I detailed part of our strategy last Thursday: http://bit.ly/HiJTqr
Since then, we've spent another $2 to roll up to the $560 puts but this is still our 1x round out of 4x so we haven't even gotten to the point where we double down yet.
Fixed Markets Friday - Greece All Better - Next! [View article]
We're hunting CMG at the moment. It may take a while but we have a system for playing shorts that let's us be 40% wrong while we wait and I REALLY don't see CMG burning us at $560 so it's a good time for us to start.
Fixed Markets Friday - Greece All Better - Next! [View article]
Fall Back Friday: Greece Not Yet Fixed [View article]
http://bit.ly/wDfdgO
Fall Back Friday: Greece Not Yet Fixed [View article]
I assumed that was a well-known concrete fact so I myself didn't bother to check and used a far too conservative number apparently.
Then you go to Reichstag fire - WOW! I think I would pay to sit in on an analysis session with you. It would be fascinating to see those wheels spinning as we learn about all the things you associate in there...
Unfortunately, you didn't actually use it correctly as the Reichstag fire was set by the Nazis to blame the Communists falsely for a plot against the German Government so they could arrest their enemies and trample the constitution.
Thank goodness we could never even imagine a modern parrallel to that, where an administration that recently took power uses a real or faked event as an excuse to suspend civil liberties and roll their military ambitions across the globe on essentially false pretenses while branding anyone who disagrees with them a traitor or, in the succinct words of a great modern leader - "you are either with us, or you are with the terrorists."