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Philip Davis

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  • Monday Musings: New Quarter Not So Shiny [View article]
    Sure, it's a reflection of the negative sentiment against holding on to an S&P short for another month. People still don't believe the sell-off will last so the run-up in the front-month is not projected to be sustained and so, the longer-dated contracts don't get the premium you'd expect. These are the kind of discrepancies we love to exploit!
    Apr 11 09:20 AM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday Musings: New Quarter Not So Shiny [View article]
    Options my friend - plenty of puts available. Also, if you want to avoid premium, you can sell calls or sell spread to limit your exposure. Whenever you have trouble finding stock to short - check the options.
    Apr 2 01:03 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday Musings: New Quarter Not So Shiny [View article]
    So you have 4 bad cards and maybe a jack in china (and we were discussing the bad news, not avoiding good news) and you want to go all in because Japan is doing a little better than they were in an earthquake?

    Go ahead - we need the counterparties!

    Since the point I was making above is that bluffing is a poor strategy in poker and you failed to grasp that, I won't assume you understand the rest of the stuff you read either...

    Do you understand the difference between the two PMI reports or are you just spouting off? One is a broad-bases look at data throughout china gathered independently (like our ADP Repor) and the other is only a survey of large and predominantly state-owned manufacturers.
    Apr 2 12:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday Madness: G20 FinMins Set 2-Week Deadline [View article]
    Well it's a simplification, of course. The point is that you increase the money supply by 50% and if we simply go back to the same level of consumption we had 3 years ago - then GDP expands by 50%. We're not consuming 33% less, there's a multiplying effect in between 0% and 50% and all sorts of numbers you can plug into a formula after spending a few years in grad school studying monetary theory but, the short story is - more money moving slower = steady GDP. More money moving faster = rising GDP. Rising GDP not keeping up with real gains in production/consumption = inflation. There's at least $35,000 worth of grad school for you!

    Spark notes is good for this stuff: http://bit.ly/prNww9
    Oct 17 02:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Options Trader: Monday Outlook [View article]
    As indicated in the link, I'm going by usually reliable Briefing.com list but Kskee is right, nothing confirming on SIRI web site and last earnings weren't until 2/26 so May 27 does make sense.
    Apr 28 08:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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