Cameco Corp. (CCJ)
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- 36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
- Cameco Corp. Shares Continue to Fall [view article]
- 2 Top Energy Sector Bets [view article]
- Uranium: Red Hot Yellow Cake [view article]
- 8 Stocks to Buy if McCain Wins [view article]
- A 360 View of Returns (July 2008) [view article]
- Financial Roundtable: Four Stocks To Buy Now [view article]
- Nuclear Power's Second Coming Will Lead to a Uranium Boom [view article]
- How to Take Advantage of Cameco's Shopping Spree [view article]
- Hedge Fund Manager's Notebook: Lehman, Korea, and 3 Uranium Plays [view article]
- Four Best Global Deals on Uranium [view article]
- Chart: Gold Stocks - Annual Revenue Growth [view article]
Recent CCJ Articles
- Miners Face Uncertain Future as Uranium Deleveraging Continues
- 36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull
- Cameco Corp. Shares Continue to Fall
- 8 Stocks to Buy if McCain Wins
- 2 Top Energy Sector Bets
- Financial Roundtable: Four Stocks To Buy Now
- How to Take Advantage of Cameco's Shopping Spree
- Hedge Fund Manager's Notebook: Lehman, Korea, and 3 Uranium Plays
- Cameco's Less-Than-Explosive Earnings
- Four Best Global Deals on Uranium
- Full List of Articles »
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36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
There is one undisputably good point in this post. The markets play us, not the other way around. This market will turn when BIG MONEY turns, not when User 2342325 or Peppio or Anti-Fool or I decide to spend our last 25% of cash and jump in with our $10K or $100K.Problem is that BIG MONEY is currently bancrupt or busy unwinding. The only guy left standing is the Fed and its printing presses. However, despite the fact that the Fed's injected close to a trillion dollars into the system in the past few months, BIG MONEY is still holding on for dear life, and it's scared. Citi, Wells Fargo, BofA? Still alive, but in a month, who knows? When these guys start buying again, that's when the market turns. And right now they ain't got the balls to buy. Because they saw what happened to Lehman, Morgan and others who were in denial.
Hey who was it here on SeekingAlpha who said we'll have a bottom when we have 60 days of no bad news? I completelly agree. Well, guess what. We still have bad news, even if it's from UK/Europe.
Reply
36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
sentiment suggests a bottom - but the dead interbank lending market, dead credit markets, dead CP markets and the crashing carry-trade (Yen is going ballistic, especially against the Euro) suggest more pain ahead. Form a time perspective, we probably are pretty close to a bottom. But tell that to the Russians who saw their market plunge more than 20%(!!) just yesterday alone - on top of a 50%+ decline earlier. so a bottom will form between now and mid-november - but it may be right here or it may be 20 or 30 or even 40% lower. who knows for sure? on the other hand, selling has now rotated towards tech after energy and materials in summer.the energy complex is the safest imho now - rich dividends and backed by real, needed assets. technology has a further 40-50% downside risk as those items are usually discretionary stuff that you can at least postpone. and people loosing their jobs, banks starved off cash and corporations with no access to debt financing will postpone software and hardware upgrades as long as possible.i do hope the europeans get their acts together and start lowering rates pretty soon and create a pan-european rescue fund. or else the eurozone's economy will head over the cliff and maybe taking the euro currency with it. which would be no event to cheer because it would inflict another huge round of damages across the world Reply
36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
We are almost certainly close to a bottom. Just look at where valuations are. You have to go back 2 decades to find a point where the market multiples of prior year earnings are where we are today. Add to that the corporate balance sheets (except for financials, they are strong); of course the consumer balance sheet is bad as is the governments. I see start of an expansion in early q2 09. Have a look at maxkapital.blogspot.co...; maxkapital.blogspot.co...; maxkapital.blogspot.co.... Reply36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
Love it. The more negative comments I read, the closer I know we really are to a bottom. Reply36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy! Reply36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
If you go long, but do so without an intelligent exit strategy in place consider yourself to be gambling. Reply36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
Exactly, even water wells dry-up in time. Better start drilling right now before the next oil-price rise. The next rise maybemore hurtful than the last one. Reply
36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
I think it's a dubious assertion to dismiss peak oil because there happens to be plenty of oil on the market right now. Peak oil is something occuring across decades, not weeks or months. Oil fields are dying every day and are not being replaced. That is a geological fact. This market may recover but oil will be more expensive and less available in ten years. Reply36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
Curbs-inYes , you are correct , but Russia , along with Brazil , are tanking , along with China + Europe . This will be a global Depression .It will be most severe in The US + Europe . You had better hope that there are soup lines. How will you get there with the price of Gas ? More mass layoffs are coming + martial law Reply
36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
a nation of fiat money. Reply36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
PNC, PEP, PCP a few I own and have for a very long time. Reply36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
Glad my Coke (KO) and gold (ABX) made the list. KO has not suffered the hosing the rest of my portfolio has taken. Maybe your other picks are safe havens ...or safer. Best move, if you had foreseen a 33% one-year S&P dive, would have been to move to cash last October and stay there. Can't fault anyone who went "all in" a week ago. America's on sale! ReplyFist
36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
Bill, I generally enjoy your analysis and articles. I believe in buying when others everybody is selling. I completely disagree that this a time to buy stocks denominated in US dollars. The foreign markets will be buyable long before this country is. We may see another 40-60% drop in valuations in this country before anything resembling a long term bull market happens in this country. This country has to undergo a fundamental change in the way it's people think before the markets will go up meaningfully again. In my opinion, that is years away, not happening now.Not catching this falling knife, I am out and in cash. There will be other ways to make money, but it won't be by going long stocks denominated in US dollars. I'll look to buy in the next 5 years or so, but we've got a LOT more downside to go. Reply
Logic
36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
There are problems with trying to catch falling knives at this point.1) The markets are overly unstable, as the 300-700 daily point swings illustrate. We run the real risk of a crash.
2) The fundemental conditions are not anything most of us have seen in our lifetimes. Maybe everyone is RIGHT to be fearful. Contrarian indicators generally only work to confirm other indicators. They are virtually useless on their own, because the levels of bullish/bearishness are all relative. As an example: It may seem high when 50% of the people are bearish, relative to the 20% who were 2 months ago... but it will turn out that 98% will be bearish at the REAL bottom -- which makes the 50% seem low. There's just no way to know where you are in that cycle, except by hindsight.
3) There is a risk of systemic meltdown. This would obviously be exceedingly bearish.
4) The hedge funds are facing extremely high redemptions, and may be forced to continue selling.
5) The market anticipates the future. The future 6-9 months ahead looks worse, not better.
All in all, I have considered trying to bottom pick, but decided against it. Bottom picking implies a bottom -- and I'm not convinced we're there yet. Stocks are still not cheap by historical standards.
I would rather miss the exact bottom by a few percent than be way too early and lose dozens of percent. Reply
Charley
36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull [view article]
I am all in, I had 25% in cash and spent it all last week. I bought GE when it dropped nearly 10% now it looks to open down another 1%. I cannot help but wonder what people are thinking? GE has capitol problems sure but they are also set to rock with a sizable presence in wind turbines. The next time that oil goes up this one will too. It is a good bet that if the Democrats win in Nov that Alt Energy will be a major agenda item for the new administration. Reply