Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH)

All Comments on OIH

  • commenter
    The Old
    Wizard
    Aug 20 12:06 PM
    Oil: Demand Destruction Overdone? [view article]
    It is wearisome to keep hearing that if we drill for new oil it will take ten years to get it. Does anyonne really believe that a country that could go to the moon in the 60's in 8 years, can't with technology that is already developed get new oil from known deposits in less than 10 years?This kind of assertion, is what keeps us from having a comprehensive energy plan. The necessity to stop the negative cash flow of over 800b DOLLARS /YR. out of this country as measured by the current account, most of it due to importation of oil, should drive our plan. Short term, drilling for 2m barrels of oil/day from our off-shore supply and crash programs in wind, solar and nuclear to achieve 5m barrels of oil/day less import of oil from undesirable sources in 5 years and a goal of 10m barrels/day in 10 years will serve 3 positive factors; 1]cash flow2] growth and 3]new job creation. Those of you who cling to the ten year number should look in to the timetable the CHinese have for getting oil 70miles off the coast of Florida. New car sales and conservation methods will not by themseves have enough near term impact, because of underlying structural factors inherent in our current state;i.e. the number of cars that must turnover,the population distribution around our urban centers and the availability of conveniient and affordable mass transportation. No doubt a deep worldwide depression might create the near-term demand destruction to severely reduce the price of energy which would probably require a world war to reverse as did 1929. I vote for a comprehensive energy plan that has significant short and long term permenant impact on our country's well-being. Reply
  • commenter
    notsosmart
    Aug 20 10:35 AM
    My Website
    Toll Brothers Staying Alive - Fast Money Midday Recap (8/19/08) [view article]
    blah,blah,blah..nobody knows anything. just guessing.if right big brag,if wrong,hardly a word.why does anybody waste their time?
    Reply
  • commenter
    captainccs
    Aug 19 10:04 AM
    My Website
    Barron's Drop - Fast Money Recap (8/18/08) [view article]
    Barron's kiss of death is probably a breath of life for Freddy and Fanny. Reply
  • commenter
    Ernie
    Montague
    Aug 18 10:43 AM
    Oil: Demand Destruction Overdone? [view article]
    No doubt alternative energy is on the way. Shortly after the expenditure of $1-3 trillion, we will have a fairly viable alternative to petroleum. Probably this century. Maybe as soon as 40 years. Reply
  • commenter
    scfranklin94
    Aug 18 09:02 AM
    Oil: Demand Destruction Overdone? [view article]
    Andy is confirming what I'm experiencing on my commute to work; for awhile it seemed to be slackening off, but now people seem to think $3.50 gasoline is 'cheap', and the traffic seems to be picking up again.... Reply
  • commenter
    Tim Miles
    Aug 18 07:45 AM
    Oil: Demand Destruction Overdone? [view article]
    Thanks, Andy. Good, well-reasoned analysis. No one should believe that the latest drop in price at the gas pumps is a long-term trend. Get rid of your gas guzzling SUVs and support the development of alternative energy resources. Drilling for more domestic oil is not a viable, long-term solution to our problems when it will take ten years for that supply to come online. Moreover, the new oil will be just as expensive (if not more) and will be sold on the international marketplace, not secured for U.S. consumption. Reply
  • commenter
    User 44928
    Aug 17 04:22 PM
    Oil: Demand Destruction Overdone? [view article]
    I think Bill James is right. Demand destruction = economic destruction. Reply
  • commenter
    Ax
    Aug 17 03:02 PM
    Oil: Demand Destruction Overdone? [view article]
    Nobody wants to hear about fossil fuel anymore. People just don't wanna hear about being kidnapped by the Arabs and paying them their mansions in the deserts.

    What the oil markets showed is that there is no real benefit of having this sort of energy if the price of it can sky rocket at any explosion of a pipeline in some Mumbojumboland in the middle of nothing.

    There is a radical shift in the way people think. Maybe it's not the Americans, but the technology societies of the future are doing something about the problem right now.

    So you can put your charts from the past as much as you like... the money is pouring in alternative energy and all the oil rich countries know this century policies are coming to a brutal end.

    Demand destruction? Wait and see. No one wants to hear about oil anymore except for the ones who made billions. Oil is out of fashion... and anyone who thinks about buying a SUV is now regarded as an idiot, a mere egotistical moron who should be shoot. That's what people in Europe think. So demand destruction? Of course... not only destruction, but complete elimination of this old, expensive, geopolitically dangerous addiction altogether.

    This is going to be an alternative energy century. More expensive than a 100 USD for a barrel of oil, but sustainable and clean.     Reply
  • commenter
    Tony
    Daltorio
    Aug 17 12:09 PM
    My Website
    Oil: Demand Destruction Overdone? [view article]
    Brilliant article! Anyone who is hanging their hat on 'demand destruction' does not understand American consumers and is probably a clueless short-term trader. Reply
  • commenter
    bowman711
    Aug 17 12:01 PM
    Oil: Demand Destruction Overdone? [view article]
    Isn't this the 'conventional wisdom' that oil goes up and, along with it, gasoline price goes up? Then, oil goes down A BIT, and gasoline goes down PART of the way to its previous level. The 'relief' of gasoline price going down is observed by North American drivers by going back to their previous levels of driving or other usage of oil. I'd wager that nine out of ten Americans believe this is the standard procedure of oil companies raising prices and getting drivers to accept it. [Whether it is standard procedure for oil companies to raise gasoline prices I'll leave for you to decide.] Reply
  • commenter
    dhavis
    Aug 17 11:34 AM
    Oil: Demand Destruction Overdone? [view article]
    Nice analysis. I think when you look back and even at current numbers you might come to the conclusion that oil/gas demand is not being destroyed. But when you factor in that SUV sales have all but stopped and that small car sales have ramped up so much that manufacturers can't keep up with demand, then extraolate that out, you might get a better understanding of what is to come. This happened in the late 70's and early 80's, it takes many months or years to truly show up in the numbers. Also, a lot of the cutbacks airlines have made in routes and planes have not taken effect. It is a phasing out approach, not an axe it now approach. As for global demand, I have not studied it, but I would assume they are less likely to be able to absorb the impact of high oil/gas than those in the US. Subsadies of foreign nations have only been in effect for a month or two, give it time to take effect. Demand will fall. Reply
  • commenter
    freefall51
    Aug 17 10:11 AM
    Oil: Demand Destruction Overdone? [view article]
    I think the steep gradient of the recent oil price increases was as important as the absolute level, shocking a lot of people and letting them pull their horns in. Now the public is conditioned to these prices and with some price relief the shock effect is fading out. We are coming closer to the next round of price increases. Gas prices are still only half of what the Europeans pay. I would agree however that the Americans of all folks in the world have the biggest potential to save energy and make a difference to the oil price. Reply
  • commenter
    pachanguero
    Aug 17 09:39 AM
    Oil: Demand Destruction Overdone? [view article]
    I would never hold DUG you are asking to get robbed.
    At some point that trade wiil turn and cut your head off.     Reply
  • commenter
    Bill James
    Aug 17 09:05 AM
    My Website
    Oil: Demand Destruction Overdone? [view article]
    Thanks for the insight and graphics. Demand destruction equals economic destruction. Reply
  • commenter
    mangolfer
    Aug 17 08:38 AM
    Oil: Demand Destruction Overdone? [view article]
    I'm not hearing anything about people using more. Everybody is cutting back anyway they can. I'm in DUG since early July and making a fortune. It will be a long time before people worldwide get comfortable with these prices. Yes, overall demand may be increasing in China, India, etc, but the demand increase rates are slowing the right now too.... Reply

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