Jason Shade

14 Comments

    • Putting $1T Subprime Mortgage Losses in Perspective [view article]
      My comment is not a rant against Mr. Perry or his blog. I blog here regularly and extend the same professional courtesy to others as I myself would like to receive.

      Rather, it is merely a point focused on the recent guarded optimism being pushed upon the American public by the mass media and indivduals like Mr. Forbes. It is sort of reminiscent of the crew on the Titanic telling the third class passengers everything will be ok and that they should remain locked below deck because the ship is unsinkable. We all know how that ended!

      In other words, these Wall Street talking heads believe we can talk this economy and this market in from the ledge before it plunges. If that is the case, as these folks keep telling the masses and the little investors not to panic, I suggest PANIC!!!!

      As many market gurus over the years have pointed out, market bottoms are not hit when there is still any kind of hope or optimism in the air. That is exactly what Mssrs. Forbes and Perry still represent, although all indicators are pointing to recession. In other words, sentiment is just not suggesting enough misery yet.

      I take this as yet another good reason for those conservative investors to remain on the sidelines and wait for an entry point into these markets and to the aggressive investors keep shorting the short squeeze bounces! In fact, I think we will see a dandy by the end of summer.... For what it's worth!       Jul 12 11:03 PM
    • Options Trader: Tuesday Outlook [view article]
      I agree completely regarding the commodities hype! At some point, the bottom will drop on all of it. It will make the housing bubble look like a minor correction. I have been shorting fertilizer companies at different intervals with mixed success. What are your thoughts regarding that sector? Frothy may not be the right word, since most companies are trading at 12X book.... Apr 09 01:31 AM
    • AMD's Troubles Are Making Intel Investors Nervous [view article]
      I don't think INTC is going to make it out of this quarter alive. There really is no real buyer conviction seen in the stock at these levels. I believe it will retest its lows and will probably use the quarter earnings report to do it. The whole semi industry is being shelled one final time as the final shakeout for it may be at hand. I would definitely wait until after the quarter to take any position. AMD investors will get a scare over the next coming weeks as well, but this company along with the whole sector will see nice gains over the next 18 months.

      Too much bearishness and doom being laid upon this sector. At these price to book ratios, you would swear man was going to stop using technology and semis cold turkey.       Apr 09 01:21 AM
    • The Smell of Contagion Hits Wall Street [view article]
      Michael,

      Good piece. I blogged something similar today, just not as detailed and comprehensive.

      It appears that we are the only two guys heading for the exits in this market. Not too mention, we look like fools in doing so.

      Do you think we are a year early in our prediction for a major correction or the possibility of the onset of a bear market? Over the past 27 years, the third year of a presidential cycle tends to be the most consistent performer of the four-year term. This appears to be the case again this year, at least up until now.

      Your thoughts would be appreciated.

      Jason Shade       Jul 03 12:33 AM
    • Advanced Life Sciences Attractive After Recent Sell-Off [view article]
      Good breakdown on the study involving the company's premier drug candidate, cethromycin. However, my pharma background makes me skeptical about any real positive catalysts coming from an anticipated launch of this particular antibiotic.

      Although the efficacy data appears positive, the safety data may become a much larger concern as cethromycin moves closer to market. Cethromycin is a ketolide. One only has to look at the first ketolide (Ketek) launched two years ago by Sanofi-Aventis. Ketek was probably one of the most powerful and effective antibiotics ever brought to market. Although the drug had a fairly solid launch, it was probably never going to be a huge blockbuster. Hurting the drug even more was the safety issues that surfaced last year. The FDA raised concerns regarding deaths and liver toxicity which eventually spelled the demise for the promising young antibiotic.

      With this as a recent example, I would not be keen to take bets on small biotech companies banking on an antibiotic for its first big splash in the world of pharmaceuticals. First of all antibiotics are usually not cash cows and doctors are reserved about prescribing a new antibiotic. Factor in Ketek's recent woes and the reservations could be even stronger.

      I would need to be confident of the product pipeline at Advanced Life Sciences (ADLS) in order to invest in it. I would not be buying the company based on the hype surrounding cethromycin. The oncology and inflammation drugs would be my focus regarding this particular stock, and they are not far enough along in the FDA process to garner my attention.       Jun 30 11:24 PM
    • Top 5 Largest Uranium Miners [view article]
      Well done.

      I see uranium as the best long term alternative energy play. I call it alternative because it still has tremendous utilization potential that has yet to be tapped. I have been in favor of FRG since it was in the low 6's this past summer. I also wanted to get your thoughts on USEG. It is not a pure play, but it does provide some nuclear/uranium exposure.       Feb 21 11:24 PM
    • Size Really Does Matter: In the Case of Uranium Stocks, Smaller May Be Better [view article]
      Great piece James. Execellent work.

      How do you view today's news regarding China and the rekindling of nuclear interest in that region. How do you see this faring for nuclear energy overall and say a bull market not only in uranium but also nuclear related type companies like say USU and SGR?       Dec 18 10:43 AM
    • Why The IPO Slowdown May Be A Good Thing [view article]
      Nice job, Herb.

      The Street is quick to forget those bubble years in the late 90s. We recently saw this with the alternative energy market and ethanol plays. Any company with a hint of corn in its prospectus was sent soaring upon its going public, and now, many of those stocks are trading notably lower than they were upon first trading.

      Usually a glut of IPOs poring forth in any given sector, signify a possible bubble in that given sector. The fewer the IPOs generally the better the value being offered.       Nov 28 01:00 AM
    • The Short Case on Coinstar [view article]
      Good argument on the fundamentals. Nevertheless, this stock's recent run could be caused, in part, by the involvement of the Shamrock Activist Fund. It owns a sizeable stake in the company. I think the fund is averaged in around the $22-$24 level. Just a thought. Nov 22 01:51 PM
    • Dow's Rise to 12,000 Was Second Slowest 1,000 Point Rise In Its History [view article]
      Great post guys regarding the technicals! So from a technical point of view, do you guys see it as bullish? Oct 20 02:58 PM
    • China Mobile: Making Money from China’s Emerging Middle Class [view article]
      Thanks Shaun for the insight into China telecom. I am positioned in a microcap company -- Telestone Technologies (TSTC). They provide some of the big China telecom player with services to be used in building out the 3G networks for the upcoming 2008 Olympics. Any thoughts on this particular company or the overall investment environment/opportunit... concerning the network buildouts? Oct 10 01:16 AM
    • Upscale Brands Not Immune to Investor Wrath [view article]
      Great piece Marc.

      You seem to have a sound focus on the upscale retailers. Maybe you can help me understand the recent upward moves in both KSS and FD. I did some work on the retail sector yesterday and found them to be two upscale retailers surviving and actually thriving amid the recent shelling in the retail sector.

      I was wondering are they just two really good houses in a bad neighborhood or is there something more to the recent rise in price, particularly concerning KSS. This stock has not been this high in almost five years.

      Just wondering. Thanks.

      Jason       Aug 28 03:24 PM
    • Google Needs to Shed Some Cash [view article]
      Thanks for pointing out Google's cash horde. I for one speculate that the company will be using this cash in the near future to make accretive acquisitions.

      This is one of the reasons why I believe it will be a potential buyer of another company I have been accumulating --- Napster. NAPS is roughly worth $150 million in market cap and would be an excellent addition to the suite of Internet search/media/entertain... services already being offered by Google. Music search and play is definitely a platform that Google could take and transform into yet another viable revenue stream.

      GOOG could snap up this company at a premium of $300 million plus with very little difficulty based on the cash numbers you showed.

      Just my thoughts.       Aug 27 12:13 PM
    • Railroad Demand Strong? [view article]
      I also read daily news headlines in search of new investment ideas. I noticed a very compelling comment in the railroad article mentioning the spending of more than $8 billion in the short term for track and other railroad equipment. I was wondering if there are other plays on public companies involved in providing railroad ties and other equipment (excluding railcars) for the rail industry? $8 billion is plenty of cash, and it would seem that it could be a great way to play the continuing rail boom, at least from what was mentioned in the WSJ piece. Jul 04 12:44 AM
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